Democratic
Summer Lee
Incumbent representative for PA-12. Voting record, ideology and biography →
← all House races
Pennsylvania District 12 election, 2026
Summer Lee vs. James Hayes. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Summer Lee favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+25.7
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+19.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
James Hayes
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for PA-12. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Summer LeeDEM · incumbent$1.6M raised
Spent $929kCash on hand $1.7M26% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$207k
- Not Reported$141k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$85k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$31k
- Technology & Communications$31k
States
- CA$233k
- PA$189k
- FL$62k
- TX$48k
- IL$43k
James HayesREP$81k raised
Spent $70kCash on hand $11kDebts $12k26% from donors under $200Self-funded $25
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$16k
- Homemaker$3k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$2k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$2k
- Not Reported$300
States
- PA$51k
- LA$1k
- MS$1k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for PA-12; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Pennsylvania's 12th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Incoming House Oversight Chair Has Two Words for 'Trump Crime Family' and Their Allies: 'Lawyer Up'
After Democrats took back both chambers of the US Congress Tuesday, Rep. Robert Garcia, the incoming Democratic chair of the House Oversight Committee, had two words for President Donald Trump and his family: “Lawyer up.”With solid majorities in the House and…
Common Dreams · November 4, 2026
Lingering feuds threaten Democrats' bid to reclaim Congress
By Nolan D. McCaskill WASHINGTON, Sept 19 (Reuters) - Democrats are seeking to reclaim Congress, but lingering divisions from a bruising run-up to the November election threaten to imperil the party's attempt to claw back power from President Donald Trump's R…
Yahoo Entertainment · September 19, 2026
CNN devolves into shouting as conservative's 'company you keep' attack backfires on Trump
CNN political commentator Charles Blow flipped a conservative panelist's guilt-by-association attack back on Donald Trump during a heated Monday night clash, invoking Jeffrey Epstein and Trump's affinity for authoritarian leaders in a comeback that quickly ri…
Raw Story · August 25, 2026
The Crucial Voting Bloc in Michigan’s Primary Today
Editor’s Note: Welcome to The TNR Blue Book. It’s our new daily newsletter that covers Congress and much more, but with a distinctly TNR twist: Our focus will be strictly on Democrats, liberal and progressive groups, and the fight to take back power and save …
The New Republic · August 4, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗