Democratic
Summer Lee
Incumbent representative for PA-12. Voting record, ideology and biography →
VotePredictor forecast
Summer Lee favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+29.1
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+19.22026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
James Hayes
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for PA-12. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for PA-12; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Pennsylvania's 12th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Lingering feuds threaten Democrats' bid to reclaim Congress
By Nolan D. McCaskill WASHINGTON, Sept 19 (Reuters) - Democrats are seeking to reclaim Congress, but lingering divisions from a bruising run-up to the November election threaten to imperil the party's attempt to claw back power from President Donald Trump's R…
Yahoo Entertainment · September 19, 2026
CNN devolves into shouting as conservative's 'company you keep' attack backfires on Trump
CNN political commentator Charles Blow flipped a conservative panelist's guilt-by-association attack back on Donald Trump during a heated Monday night clash, invoking Jeffrey Epstein and Trump's affinity for authoritarian leaders in a comeback that quickly ri…
Raw Story · August 25, 2026
The Crucial Voting Bloc in Michigan’s Primary Today
Editor’s Note: Welcome to The TNR Blue Book. It’s our new daily newsletter that covers Congress and much more, but with a distinctly TNR twist: Our focus will be strictly on Democrats, liberal and progressive groups, and the fight to take back power and save …
The New Republic · August 4, 2026
Green Groups Rally Behind Tennessee's Justin Pearson for Congress
A week away from Tennessee's Democratic primary, a coalition of national advocacy groups endorsed Justin Pearson, who is running to represent the state's 9th Congressional District in the US House of Representatives."Tennesseans deserve a champion who will st…
Common Dreams · July 30, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗