Actual result
D+3.3
Final polls said
R+6.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+2.0
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grove Insight | D+8.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+2.0 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 3 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | R+5.0 | 8.3 | ✗ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | R+6.0 | 9.3 | ✗ |
| 5 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | R+8.0 | 11.3 | ✗ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-11-01 | 622 | R+6.0 | 9 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2008-10-10 | 586 | R+5.0 | 8 |
| Grove Insight | 2008-10-05 | 400 | D+8.0 | 5 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2008-10-02 | 400 | R+8.0 | 11 |
| Grove Insight | 2008-09-14 | 400 | D+9.0 | 6 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2008-09-11 | 547 | R+9.0 | 12 |