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Toss-up · 2012 House
Pennsylvania House
In the 2012 Pennsylvania House race, Keith J. Rothfus (R) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
R+3.5
Final polls said
R+5.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | R+2.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+2.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Clout Research | R+5.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | McLaughlin & Associates | EVEN | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 5 | Impact Research | D+11.0 | 14.5 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Clout Research2012-10-232
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.2012-10-011
Public Opinion Strategies2012-09-301
Impact Research2012-09-2414
McLaughlin & Associates2012-09-193
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2012 Pennsylvania House race?
Keith J. Rothfus (R) won, by about 3.5 points (R+3.5).
When was the 2012 Pennsylvania House election held?
It was held in November 2012.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.