Actual result
R+3.5
Final polls said
R+5.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+4.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | R+2.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+2.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Clout Research | R+5.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | McLaughlin & Associates | EVEN | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 6 | Impact Research | D+11.0 | 14.5 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clout Research | 2012-10-23 | 442 | R+5.0 | 2 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2012-10-01 | 950 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2012-09-30 | 400 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Impact Research | 2012-09-24 | 400 | D+11.0 | 14 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2012-09-19 | 400 | EVEN | 3 |