Actual result
D+15.7
Final polls said
R+2.1
3 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+1.3
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+5.0 | 10.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Dane & Associates | D+1.8 | 13.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+1.3 | 17.0 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dane & Associates | 2008-10-28 | 3657 | D+1.8 | 14 |
| Dane & Associates | 2008-10-22 | 800 | R+13.0 | 29 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2008-10-21 | 400 | D+5.0 | 11 |