Actual result
D+7.7
Final polls said
D+4.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+4.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global Strategy Group | D+8.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+7.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Grove Insight | D+7.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | We Ask America | D+8.4 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+4.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Impact Research | D+2.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | McLaughlin & Associates | D+1.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 8 | ccAdvertising | D+0.1 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 9 | Public Policy Polling | R+1.0 | 8.7 | ✗ |
| 10 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+2.0 | 9.7 | ✗ |
Polls (12)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2010-10-09 | 400 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-07 | 442 | D+0.1 | 1 |
| Grove Insight | 2010-09-08 | 400 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-05-15 | 831 | R+1.0 | 9 |
| We Ask America | 2010-05-13 | 888 | D+8.4 | 1 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2010-05-10 | 400 | D+6.0 | 2 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2010-05-04 | 400 | R+2.0 | 10 |
| Impact Research | 2010-04-28 | 406 | D+2.0 | 6 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2010-04-28 | 400 | D+8.0 | 0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-04-17 | 1197 | R+3.0 | 11 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2010-04-15 | 300 | D+1.0 | 7 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2010-04-14 | 400 | D+3.0 | 5 |