Actual result
D+3.8
Final polls said
D+10.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+8.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+8.5 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+10.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2004-10-12 | 450 | D+10.0 | 6 |