Actual result
R+25.2
Final polls said
R+12.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+9.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OnMessage Inc. | R+19.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | PSB Research | R+12.0 | 13.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | ccAdvertising | R+11.0 | 14.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+9.6 | 15.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Normington, Petts & Associates | R+4.0 | 21.2 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSB Research | 2010-10-20 | 404 | R+12.0 | 13 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-12 | 2085 | R+11.0 | 14 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2010-10-04 | 400 | R+4.0 | 21 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2010-09-19 | 400 | R+19.0 | 6 |