Democratic
Katy Padilla Stout
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Texas District 23 election, 2026
Katy Padilla Stout vs. Brandon Herrera on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Brandon Herrera favored
Lean R · predicted margin R+6.3
85%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+15.02026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
1, averaging R+2.0Forecast spread
±6.1 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (open seat: none). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said R+9.0.
Republican
Brandon Herrera
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Ben Mendoza · Independent
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
Public Policy Polling2026-03-11R+2.0
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TX-23; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Texas's 23rd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗