Actual result
R+4.0
Final polls said
D+1.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
D+3.9
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+1.0 | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+3.9 | 7.9 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 68% | 0.459 | ✗ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 73% | 0.533 | ✗ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 74% | 0.548 | ✗ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Dem 85% | 0.715 | ✗ |
| 7 | The Economist | Dem 96% | 0.922 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2020-10-04 | 400 | D+1.0 | 5 |