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Toss-up · 2020 House
Texas House
In the 2020 Texas House race, Tony Gonzales (R) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
R+4.0
Final polls said
D+1.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+1.0 | 5.0 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 68% | 0.459 | ✗ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 73% | 0.533 | ✗ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 74% | 0.548 | ✗ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 85% | 0.723 | ✗ |
| 7 | The Economist | Dem 96% | 0.922 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Public Opinion Strategies2020-10-045
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Texas House race?
Tony Gonzales (R) won, by about 4.0 points (R+4.0).
When was the 2020 Texas House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.