Actual result
D+8.6
Final polls said
R+5.5
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+5.8
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+4.0 | 12.6 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+5.8 | 14.4 | ✗ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-12-09 | 530 | R+4.0 | 13 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-12-02 | 471 | R+7.0 | 16 |