Democratic
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
Incumbent representative for WA-3. Voting record, ideology and biography →
VotePredictor forecast
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez favored
Likely D · predicted margin D+7.6
86%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+3.22026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
John Braun
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
Emerson College2026-07-10R+1.0
Shown for context. The forecast above is fundamentals-only and does not use these polls: tested against 2016–2024, a poll-driven rule beat fundamentals only because of a single wave cycle and reversed without it. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for WA-3; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Washington's 3rd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Same 2 Democrats Come To Rescue Republicans’ Agenda
Democratic Reps. Jared Golden of Maine and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington voted to advance House Republicans’ agenda.
The Daily Caller · September 16, 2026
Every Democrat Who Voted Against Impeaching Trump
House Democrats launched another Hail Mary bid to impeach President Donald Trump, but the effort was undercut by members of their own party.More than a dozen Democrats joined 213 Republicans in voting “no” Tuesday night. Another 46 Democrats simply voted “pre…
The New Republic · September 16, 2026
Rebel Democrats again help House GOP advance floor agenda
A pair of House Democrats voted to advance a slate of GOP bills in a procedural vote that was otherwise on track to fail — the second time they have crossed party lines to help out House GOP leaders in recent weeks. Reps. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington…
Biztoc.com · September 15, 2026
Senate Republicans privately bracing for another humiliating defeat
Senate Republicans are privately warning that the chamber's bipartisan cryptocurrency measure, the CLARITY Act, is likely to fail when lawmakers return next week, Semafor reported Tuesday.It would be only the latest embarrassment for a party that controls Was…
Raw Story · September 8, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗