Democratic
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
Incumbent representative for WA-3. Voting record, ideology and biography →
VotePredictor forecast
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez favored
Lean D · predicted margin D+2.9
68%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+3.02026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
1, averaging R+1.0Forecast spread
±6.1 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said D+5.3.
Republican
John Braun
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
Emerson College2026-07-10R+1.0
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for WA-3; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Washington's 3rd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Is This the Oddest Democrat in Congress?
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside Washington Representative Marie Gluesenkamp Perez has made quite the reputation for herself …
The New Republic · October 7, 2026
As Trump's approval rating drops, Republicans begin to lose confidence in midterms
The US Capitol Building is seen on October 1, in Washington, DC. - Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images Four weeks to Election Day, a growing number of House Republicans privately fear their chances of holding onto the majority are vanishing and have begun focusing…
CNN · October 3, 2026
How Worried Should Dems Be About the GOP’s Huge Cash Advantage?
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside Washington How worried should Dems be about the GOP’s huge cash advantage?Late Wednesday nig…
The New Republic · October 2, 2026
Democrat Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez's Financial Disclosures Raise Questions After She Backed Trading Ban
Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA) has repeatedly called for members of Congress to be barred from trading individual stocks, but a series of financial disclosure filings from her 2022 campaign and first years in office show changes and omissions involving R…
Breitbart News · September 22, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗