Democratic
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
Incumbent representative for WA-3. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Washington District 3 election, 2026
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez vs. John Braun. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez favored
Lean D · predicted margin D+2.8
70%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+3.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
3, averaging R+0.7Forecast spread
±5.3 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). The 3 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said D+6.9.
Republican
John Braun
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Marie Gluesenkamp PerezDEM · incumbent$9.5M raised
Spent $9.3MCash on hand $235kDebts $180k10% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$1.8M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$283k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$277k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$97k
- Legal & Professional Services$83k
States
- WA$1.1M
- CA$546k
- NY$401k
- MA$223k
- OR$147k
John BraunREP$3.3M raised
Spent $2.6MCash on hand $672kDebts $60010% from donors under $200Self-funded $11k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Not Reported$755k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$126k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$52k
- Legal & Professional Services$15k
- Retail, Food & Consumer Goods$9k
States
- WA$1.6M
- OR$31k
- TX$28k
- CA$27k
- FL$25k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for WA-3; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Washington's 3rd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
11 p.m. – The Pacific Coast
Polls have closed in California and Washington, along with the remaining portions of Oregon and Idaho. Key races to watch: California House races: Five Republican-held districts targeted by Democrats through redistricting, along with other competitive seats. …
Politicalwire.com · November 4, 2026
Democrats flip GOP attack on its head – and it seems to be working: report
Democrats in Washington state have found a way to fight a conservative ballot measure targeting transgender athletes — by borrowing the GOP’s favorite argument against big government — and even the measure’s supporters concede it’s working, reported MS NOW.Th…
Raw Story · October 28, 2026
With a U.S. House seat at stake, Washington Republican John Braun targets trans girls in sports
John Braun is championing Initiative 638 in a race against Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez that could help determine control of the House.
Advocate.com · October 23, 2026
He Had the Know-How to Fix His Tesla. But Telsa Told Him He Couldn’t.
More than a decade ago, when Teslas were still new, Rich Benoit bought one for about $14,000 at auction. It was cheap because it had been flooded. He wanted to try to fix it, and he spent the better part of a year going through it and making repairs. He reach…
The New Republic · October 23, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗