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Toss-up · 2022 House
Washington House
In the 2022 Washington House race, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) won by less than a point.
Actual result
D+0.8
Final polls said
R+4.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | R+4.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 3 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Rep 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Rep 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 6 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 8 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 91% | 0.822 | ✗ |
| 9 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 91% | 0.828 | ✗ |
| 10 | The Economist | Rep 94% | 0.884 | ✗ |
| 11 | Race to the WH | Rep 95% | 0.902 | ✗ |
| 12 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 98% | 0.960 | ✗ |
| 13 | Fox News | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 14 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Public Policy Polling2022-09-195
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Washington House race?
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) won, by about 0.8 points (D+0.8).
When was the 2022 Washington House election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.