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Toss-up · 2022 House
Washington House
In the 2022 Washington House race, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) won by less than a point.
Actual result
D+0.8
Final polls said
R+4.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | R+4.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 3 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Rep 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Rep 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 6 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 8 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 91% | 0.828 | ✗ |
| 9 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 92% | 0.845 | ✗ |
| 10 | The Economist | Rep 94% | 0.884 | ✗ |
| 11 | Race to the WH | Rep 95% | 0.902 | ✗ |
| 12 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 98% | 0.960 | ✗ |
| 13 | Fox News | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 14 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Public Policy Polling2022-09-195
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Washington House race?
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) won, by about 0.8 points (D+0.8).
When was the 2022 Washington House election held?
It was held in November 2022.