Actual result
D+0.8
Final polls said
R+4.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+9.0
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | R+4.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+9.0 | 9.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 3 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Rep 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Rep 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 6 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 8 | VotePredictor | Rep 91% | 0.820 | ✗ |
| 9 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 91% | 0.828 | ✗ |
| 10 | The Economist | Rep 94% | 0.884 | ✗ |
| 11 | Race to the WH | Rep 95% | 0.902 | ✗ |
| 12 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 98% | 0.960 | ✗ |
| 13 | Fox News | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 14 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2022-09-19 | 834 | R+4.0 | 5 |