Actual result
R+25.4
Final polls said
R+18.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arizona State University Morrison Institute for Public Policy | R+25.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) | R+22.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Harris Insights & Analytics | R+17.0 | 8.4 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 1998-10-30 | 850 | R+17.0 | 8 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 1998-10-20 | 732 | R+20.0 | 5 |
| Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) | 1998-10-14 | 519 | R+22.0 | 3 |
| Arizona State University Morrison Institute for Public Policy | 1998-09-26 | 471 | R+25.0 | 0 |