Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 4 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+5.3 — a 68% Democratic win.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
Exclusive – Gubernatorial Hopeful Andy Biggs: Dem Gov. Katie Hobbs Literally Tore Down Immigration BarriersImmigration enforcement would look much different in Arizona if Rep. Andy Biggs led the state as governor, the gubernatorial hopeful told Breitbart News Daily, discussing the open borders moves made by Democrat Gov. Katie Hobbs. The post Exclusive – Gubernato…
Breitbart News · June 26, 2026
GOP candidates pitch themselves as the person to beat Arizona's Democratic governorThe two Republican congressmen running for Arizona governor are pitching themselves as the only candidate with broad enough voter appeal to unseat Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs amid the state’s affordability struggles
Abcnews.com · June 18, 2026- GOP candidates pitch themselves as the person to beat Arizona's Democratic governor
The two Republican congressmen running for Arizona governor are pitching themselves as the only candidate with broad enough voter appeal to unseat Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs amid the state’s affordability struggles
Abcnews.com · June 18, 2026 
2 controversial Trump nominees get warning shot from GOP senator: 'Radar is up'A Republican senator just put two of Trump's most controversial ambassador picks on notice, and he has the power to torpedo both nominations before they even reach the Senate floor.Sen. John Curtis (R-UT), who recently floated quitting Congress to run for gov…
Raw Story · May 19, 2026
Republican flips as effort to outlaw ICE whistle warnings fails by single voteA GOP-backed bill that would criminalize blowing whistles to alert people to immigration agents, a tactic embraced by activists in Minnesota earlier this year, was rejected on Tuesday. But that failure is likely to be temporary, and the measure may still land…
Raw Story · May 6, 2026
- Exclusive – Gubernatorial Hopeful Andy Biggs: Dem Gov. Katie Hobbs Literally Tore Down Immigration Barriers
Immigration enforcement would look much different in Arizona if Rep. Andy Biggs led the state as governor, the gubernatorial hopeful told Breitbart News Daily, discussing the open borders moves made by Democrat Gov. Katie Hobbs. The post Exclusive – Gubernato…
Breitbart News · June 26, 2026 
MAGA candidate's racist comments with vigilante leader exposed in leaked texts: reportA far-right congressional candidate backed by President Donald Trump exchanged racist jokes with a vigilante border militiaman, according to The Arizona Republic.Mark Lamb, the former sheriff of Pinal County, made the exchanges on a 2016 campaign social media…
Raw Story · May 27, 2026
Liberal media silent as Senate proves FBI spied on GOP without evidence as soon as Biden was presidentSen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) has obtained new documents revealing that the Biden FBI's targeting of GOP lawmakers in the wake of the Jan. 6, 2021, protests was not limited to Operation Arctic Frost but was rather "part of a pattern of political weaponization.…
TheBlaze · April 21, 2026
Republican Karrin Taylor Robson Ends Campaign for Arizona GovernorRepublican Karrin Taylor Robson will suspend her campaign for governor of Arizona, paving the way for Rep. Andy Biggs. The post Republican Karrin Taylor Robson Ends Campaign for Arizona Governor appeared first on Breitbart.
Breitbart News · February 12, 2026
Top Republican Ends Bid for Arizona Governor, Showing MAGA's Power (Kellen Browning/New York Times)Kellen Browning / New York Times: Top Republican Ends Bid for Arizona Governor, Showing MAGA's Power — Karrin Taylor Robson, a wealthy businesswoman, dropped out after trailing in polls to Representative Andy Biggs, who is more aligned with supporters of Pr…
Memeorandum.com · February 12, 2026
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Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights | 2026-05-07 | 996 | D+4.0 |
| TIPP Insights | 2026-04-24 | 1501 | D+10.0 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 2026-02-26 | 1023 | D+5.0 |
| Center for Excellence in Polling | 2026-01-24 | 519 | D+9.0 |