Arizona Governor
Katie Hobbs (D) is all but certain to win the 2026 Arizona Governor race — about a 95% chance, winning by about 10 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 8 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 8 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+10.1 — a 95% Democratic win.
Latest news
Taiwan opens Phoenix office as $265 billion chip investment in Arizona grows, over China’s objectionsArizona Gov. Katie Hobbs joined Taiwanese leaders at the opening of an economic and cultural office Monday to aid Taiwanese businesses and citizens in the region, despite pressure from the Chinese government to block it. Taiwanese authorities have said the ne…
Biztoc.com · October 6, 2026
Arizona opens new Taiwan representative office, rejecting warning from ChinaArizona Gov. Katie Hobbs and Taiwanese leaders have opened an office in Phoenix to aid Taiwanese businesses and citizens in the region
Biztoc.com · October 6, 2026
Arizona opens new Taiwan representative office, rejecting warning from ChinaArizona Gov. Katie Hobbs and Taiwanese leaders have opened an office in Phoenix to aid Taiwanese businesses and citizens in the region
Abcnews.com · October 6, 2026- Arizona opens new Taiwan representative office, rejecting warning from China
Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs and Taiwanese leaders have opened an office in Phoenix to aid Taiwanese businesses and citizens in the region
Abcnews.com · October 6, 2026 
Katie Hobbs Is Holding the Line in Arizona. Now, She’s Under Attack.You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside Washington Katie Hobbs is holding the line in Arizona. Now, she’s under attack.With midterms…
The New Republic · September 29, 2026
- Katie Hobbs Is Holding the Line in Arizona. Now, She’s Under Attack.
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside Washington Katie Hobbs is holding the line in Arizona. Now, she’s under attack.With midterms…
The New Republic · September 29, 2026 
Accused hate group leader cozy with 'kill the gays' activists sent cash to GOP congressmanRep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ), who is running for governor of Arizona, took donations from leaders of an accused anti-LGBTQ+ hate group for which he formerly served as a board member, according to recent state election filings .The Biggs for Arizona campaign took…
Raw Story · September 28, 2026
The FDA’s Overton Window ProblemYou’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside Washington The FDA’s Overton window problemOn Thursday, Republican Senator Susan Collins, a …
The New Republic · September 25, 2026
The Surprising Issue Dividing Senate Dems Right NowYou’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonThe surprising issue dividing Senate Dems right nowWhile Americans worry about sky…
The New Republic · September 18, 2026
Trump’s Unpopularity Hangs Over Andy Biggs in ArizonaPresident Donald Trump’s unpopularity in Arizona could be a problem for Republican gubernatorial nominee Andy Biggs, who is trailing his Democratic rival, Governor Katie Hobbs, in polls ahead of November’s elections. Biggs is a fierce supporter of Trump and h…
Biztoc.com · August 23, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
8 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Arizona Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Katie Hobbs (D), with roughly a 95% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+10.1.
What do the polls say in the Arizona Governor race?
There are 8 polls of this race. The most recent, from BSP Research (2026-09-04), showed D+13.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+10.1.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Arizona Governor race?
Katie Hobbs is the Democratic candidate; Andy Biggs is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Arizona Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Arizona Governor forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Katie Hobbs's (D) lead has widened to 95%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Arizona Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.