Arizona Governor
Katie Hobbs (D) is favored to win the 2026 Arizona Governor race — about a 72% chance, winning by about 6 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 8 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 8 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+6.2 — a 72% Democratic win.
Latest news
Trump’s Unpopularity Hangs Over Andy Biggs in ArizonaPresident Donald Trump’s unpopularity in Arizona could be a problem for Republican gubernatorial nominee Andy Biggs, who is trailing his Democratic rival, Governor Katie Hobbs, in polls ahead of November’s elections. Biggs is a fierce supporter of Trump and h…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
One Arizona Moonbat Lets Another Off for Apparent Quid Pro QuoArizona Attorney General Kris Mayes is not a fan of law enforcement. She has even suggested shooting ICE agents for enforcing immigration law. So it should come as no surprise that she won’t prosecute her fellow moonbat, Governor Katie Hobbs. … Continue readi…
Moonbattery.com · August 22, 2026
Arizona AG Clears Democratic Governor in Bribery ProbeArizona Attorney General Kris Mayes will not file criminal charges against Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs over accusations involving a group-home company that received a rate increase from the state after making political contributions. The investigation cen…
Biztoc.com · August 22, 2026
Arizona AG declines to charge Gov. Katie Hobbs over pay-to-play allegationsState prosecutors declined to file criminal charges over allegations that she took part in a pay-to-play scheme with a group home company that received a rate increase from the state after contributing $100,000 to her inaugural celebration.
Biztoc.com · August 21, 2026
Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs won’t face criminal charges over alleged pay-to-play schemeArizona prosecutors will not criminally charge Gov. Katie Hobbs over allegations that her administration engaged in a pay-to-play scheme involving a group home company, Attorney General Kris Mayes announced Friday. The investigation centered on Sunshine Resid…
Biztoc.com · August 21, 2026
- Trump’s Unpopularity Hangs Over Andy Biggs in Arizona
President Donald Trump’s unpopularity in Arizona could be a problem for Republican gubernatorial nominee Andy Biggs, who is trailing his Democratic rival, Governor Katie Hobbs, in polls ahead of November’s elections. Biggs is a fierce supporter of Trump and h…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday 
Andy Biggs’ Big Gamble In ArizonaBy EMMA DAYTON, The Daily Signal | August 12, 2026 Many politicians dedicate their entire lives to making it to the shining city of Washington, D.C. But that initial glow can fade. Representatives often realize they would rather return to their families and c…
Biztoc.com · August 15, 2026
What Sherrod Brown Has to Do to Beat Jon Husted in OhioYou’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonCould Jon Husted be Sherrod Brown’s ideal opponent?We’re taking a look outside of …
The New Republic · August 12, 2026
Andy Biggs’ Big Gamble in ArizonaMany politicians dedicate their entire lives to making it to the shining city of Washington, D.C. But that initial glow can fade. Representatives often realize they would rather return to their families and communities and serve in the towns and states they w…
Daily Signal · August 12, 2026- Secretary Rollins Visits Douglas Port of Entry, Announces $25 Million Commitment for New Arizona Sterile Fly Dispersal Facility
Secretary Highlights USDA’s Readiness Ahead of Douglas Port Reopening and Continued Aggressive Response to New World Screwworm (Washington, D.C., July 29, 2026) – Today, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins visited the livestock inspection faciliti…
Equinechronicle.com · July 30, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
8 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Arizona Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Katie Hobbs (D), with roughly a 72% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+6.2.
What do the polls say in the Arizona Governor race?
There are 8 polls of this race. The most recent, from Stealth Analytics (2026-08-13), showed D+5.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+6.2.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Arizona Governor race?
Katie Hobbs is the Democratic candidate; Andy Biggs is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Arizona Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Arizona Governor forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Katie Hobbs's (D) lead has widened to 72%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Arizona Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.