Actual result
D+19.6
Final polls said
D+12.0
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+23.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | D+14.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+11.0 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Los Angeles Times | D+11.0 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Policy Institute of California | D+8.0 | 11.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+7.0 | 12.6 | ✓ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 1998-11-01 | 800 | D+23.0 | 3 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 1998-10-30 | 5735 | D+11.0 | 9 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-27 | 809 | D+7.0 | 13 |
| Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | 1998-10-24 | 678 | D+14.0 | 6 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 1998-10-20 | 4531 | D+11.0 | 9 |
| Los Angeles Times | 1998-10-19 | 883 | D+11.0 | 9 |
| Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | 1998-10-17 | 809 | D+7.0 | 13 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-12 | 820 | D+6.0 | 14 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 1998-10-03 | 793 | D+8.0 | 12 |
| Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | 1998-10-01 | 703 | D+6.0 | 14 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 1998-09-04 | 1046 | D+9.0 | 11 |