Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 2 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+24.1 — a 94% Democratic win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
In California Governor’s Race, Voters Face Stark Choice on Immigrant HealthcareCalifornia’s next governor will face tough decisions on a highly controversial piece of healthcare policy: what to do about health coverage for the more than 1.4 million low-income residents without legal status. Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve H…
Kffhealthnews.org · July 6, 2026
Gavin Newsom cries political witch hunt — but are feds focused on an alleged $1.5M nonprofit pipeline to wife's business?California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) has accused President Donald Trump of “coming after” him and his wife, Jennifer Siebel Newsom, claiming that the president directed the Department of Justice to investigate the couple. Newsom posted a video on social media on …
TheBlaze · June 18, 2026
Steve Hilton slams ‘truly pathetic’ Xavier Becerra endorsement by powerful business groupCalifornia governor candidate Steve Hilton blasted the Chamber of Commerce’s endorsement of Democrat Xavier Becerra as an “embarrassing” example of failed leadership in blistering comments shared with The Post. Becerra was the first Democratic governor candid…
New York Post · June 18, 2026
'Unlikely Bedfellows': Left-Leaning Groups Join Newsom-Backed Effort to Sink California Billionaire TaxIt comes as no shock that Silicon Valley oligarchs and other plutocrats are trying to keep a proposed billionaire tax backed by California governor and presumptive Democratic presidential aspirant Gavin Newsom off November's ballot. But the participation of p…
Common Dreams · June 18, 2026- 'Under no illusions': Steve Hilton knows it's a long road ahead
For Steve Hilton, the time for celebration was short. “It’s a sense of real relief, I’ve got to be honest,” the Republican California gubernatorial candidate said in a phone call with SFGATE last Thursday, after it was officially declared that he’d advance t…
SFGate · June 16, 2026
Who is Steve Hilton? Here’s how he has rebranded himself multiple timesSteve Hilton made the British Conservative Party more liberal and has held policy positions spanning the political spectrum. He’s California Republicans’ best hope at reclaiming the governor’s seat.
KPBS · July 7, 2026- In California Governor’s Race, Voters Face Stark Choice on Immigrant Healthcare
California’s next governor will face tough decisions on a highly controversial piece of healthcare policy: what to do about health coverage for the more than 1.4 million low-income residents without legal status. Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve H…
Kffhealthnews.org · July 6, 2026 
Seeking Sacramento: How Steve Hilton Survived California’s 61-Candidate Gubernatorial PrimaryA weekend ride along with the British-accented, FOX-featured, Trump-endorsed, Republican candidate for governor.
Vanity Fair · June 29, 2026
Congressman pinpoints alarming election comment Trump made 'out loud': 'Becomes a crime'Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.) warned this week that President Donald Trump has openly acknowledged directing federal prosecutors to investigate elections whose results he dislikes — a statement the congressman argued the president made plainly and even boasted a…
Raw Story · June 28, 2026
CNN’s Jake Tapper Confronts Hilton With Trump Rant on Election: ‘That’s Nonsense, Right?’CNN anchor Jake Tapper confronted California gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton over Trump's claims of voter fraud, saying "That's nonsense, right?" The post CNN’s Jake Tapper Confronts Hilton With Trump Rant on Election: ‘That’s Nonsense, Right?’ first app…
Mediaite · June 27, 2026
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Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kreate Strategies | 2026-06-17 | 900 | D+25.0 |
| CEPP | 2026-05-26 | 735 | D+23.0 |