California Governor
Xavier Becerra (D) is the clear favorite to win the 2026 California Governor race — about a 93% chance, winning by about 21 points in the projection. Updated daily from 3 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 3 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+21.3 — a 93% Democratic win.
Latest news
Xavier Becerra’s lead over Steve Hilton shrinks in new California governor pollA new statewide poll shows Xavier Becerra leading Steve Hilton 49.2% to 41%, a sharp shift from an 18-point lead in an earlier survey.
New York Post · Today- Becerra, running for governor of California, faces a health insurance problem - NPR
Becerra, running for governor of California, faces a health insurance problemNPR Xavier Becerra gets to play it safe in the race for governor, and he isn’t making promisesCalMatters As a Sacramento teen, Xavier Becerra had drive, smarts and a steely poker fac…
Slashdot.org · Yesterday 
Becerra, running for governor of California, faces a health insurance problemThe nation's uninsured rate hit a historical low when Xavier Becerra was health secretary. Now he wants to be California's next governor as Trump's actions have driven people off health insurance.
NPR · Yesterday
Xavier Becerra is hiding his biggest secret — his policy detailsXavier Becerra has decided that the race for governor is in the bag. So he’s not offering policy details, or promises, that anyone might use to hold him accountable later.
New York Post · August 22, 2026
Xavier Becerra gets to play it safe in the race for governor, and he isn’t making promisesWhat would Xavier Becerra, a 35-year veteran of Democratic politics, do as California governor? He’s still not saying.
KPBS · August 20, 2026
- Xavier Becerra’s lead over Steve Hilton shrinks in new California governor poll
A new statewide poll shows Xavier Becerra leading Steve Hilton 49.2% to 41%, a sharp shift from an 18-point lead in an earlier survey.
New York Post · Today - Steve Hilton Calls for Removal of Nancy Skinner and Plans to Abolish California Energy Commission
He also renewed his pledge to eliminate the CEC entirely Gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton is calling for the removal of Nancy Skinner from the California Energy Commission (CEC), arguing that she is not qualified for the commission seat intended for an en…
Freerepublic.com · August 22, 2026 
Wait, Are Dems Ahead in ... Arkansas?You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonDo Democrats have a chance to flip a Senate seat in Arkansas? One poll this week s…
The New Republic · August 21, 2026
Steve Hilton vows to fire California energy bosses behind tire regulationsThe regulations are expected to affect roughly 70% of replacement tires currently on the market, potentially forcing Californians to shell out more for compliant rubber.
New York Post · August 20, 2026
Steve Hilton wants to have dinner with you as governor hopeful looks to wine and dine California voters“It’s not a scam!” Hilton wrote. “I will actually come to your home, help you cook dinner and discuss the issues affecting your family.”
New York Post · August 19, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 California Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Xavier Becerra (D), with roughly a 93% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+21.3.
What do the polls say in the California Governor race?
There are 3 polls of this race. The most recent, from UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (2026-08-09), showed D+18.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+21.3.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 California Governor race?
Xavier Becerra is the Democratic candidate; Steve Hilton is the Republican.
When is the 2026 California Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the California Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.