California Governor
Xavier Becerra (D) is all but certain to win the 2026 California Governor race — about a 99% chance, winning by about 21 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 6 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 6 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+21.0 — a 100% Democratic win.
Latest news
Could Affordability Decide California’s Governor Race?By OLIVIA BURDO via The Daily Signal | October 13, 2026 In California’s gubernatorial race, Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton are hoping to win over voters with their drastically different plans to address affordability in the state with the…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
Steve Hilton, Republican Candidate for Governor, Rolls Out Expanded Hollywood PlanSteve Hilton, the Republican contender for California governor, rolled out a plan Wednesday to revive Hollywood production that includes increased tax credits and state-backed financing for studio repairs. Hilton, who is trailing Democrat Xavier Becerra in th…
Variety · Yesterday
Xavier Becerra’s Film Policy Is Vague. Was It Written by AI?On his campaign website, Xavier Becerra has a page devoted to Hollywood. The 1,600-word policy statement is long on platitudes — “California Is the Home of Film and TV and We Intend to Keep It That Way” — but short on concrete promises. It may also have been …
Variety · Yesterday
Latinos Want More Than a Historic First From Xavier BecerraCalifornia’s upcoming gubernatorial election includes a potentially monumental feat: Xavier Becerra could become California’s first Latino governor in over 150 years.
KQED · October 13, 2026
Can This Brit Turn California Red? Steve Hilton Isn't Holding BackSteve Hilton really, really doesn't like Xavier Becerra. "What a pathetic little pipsqueak he is, honestly," the Republican nominee for governor of California said in an interview with Carlo Versano on Newsweek's The 1600 podcast. "He's such a jerk, honestly,…
Biztoc.com · October 12, 2026
- Could Affordability Decide California’s Governor Race?
By OLIVIA BURDO via The Daily Signal | October 13, 2026 In California’s gubernatorial race, Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton are hoping to win over voters with their drastically different plans to address affordability in the state with the…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday - Steve Hilton, Republican Candidate for Governor, Rolls Out Expanded Hollywood Plan
Steve Hilton, the Republican contender for California governor, rolled out a plan Wednesday to revive Hollywood production that includes increased tax credits and state-backed financing for studio repairs. Hilton, who is trailing Democrat Xavier Becerra in th…
Variety · Yesterday - Can This Brit Turn California Red? Steve Hilton Isn't Holding Back
Steve Hilton really, really doesn't like Xavier Becerra. "What a pathetic little pipsqueak he is, honestly," the Republican nominee for governor of California said in an interview with Carlo Versano on Newsweek's The 1600 podcast. "He's such a jerk, honestly,…
Biztoc.com · October 12, 2026 
Steve Hilton goes scorched earth on Xavier Becerra in blistering governor’s race attack“Xavier Becerra is not running for governor. He is waiting to be handed the job,” Hilton said.
New York Post · October 8, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 California Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Xavier Becerra (D), with roughly a 99% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+21.0.
What do the polls say in the California Governor race?
There are 6 polls of this race. The most recent, from SurveyUSA (2026-09-20), showed D+22.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+21.0.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 California Governor race?
Xavier Becerra is the Democratic candidate; Steve Hilton is the Republican.
When is the 2026 California Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 California Governor forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Xavier Becerra's (D) lead has widened to 99%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the California Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.