California Governor
Xavier Becerra (D) is all but certain to win the 2026 California Governor race — about a 99% chance, winning by about 20 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 8 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 8 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+20.2 — a 100% Democratic win.
Latest news
Steve Hilton goes scorched earth on Xavier Becerra in blistering governor’s race attack“Xavier Becerra is not running for governor. He is waiting to be handed the job,” Hilton said.
New York Post · Yesterday
California Latinos turn on Xavier Becerra over family origins as Steve Hilton prepares to unload: ‘Immigrant stolen valor’Xavier Becerra, the Democratic frontrunner in the California governor’s race, is being accused of “immigrant stolen valor” after a viral social media post poked holes in his campaign’s family origin story.
New York Post · October 7, 2026
Trump Suggests Letting Iran “Take Out” Los Angeles and San DiegoAt a rally in Nebraska Tuesday night, President Trump told his supporters exactly what he thinks about the well-being of the American people.Trump first said that the price of goods and services, which have gone up thanks to his ill-advised Iran war and tarif…
The New Republic · October 6, 2026
- Steve Hilton goes scorched earth on Xavier Becerra in blistering governor’s race attack
“Xavier Becerra is not running for governor. He is waiting to be handed the job,” Hilton said.
New York Post · Yesterday - California Latinos turn on Xavier Becerra over family origins as Steve Hilton prepares to unload: ‘Immigrant stolen valor’
Xavier Becerra, the Democratic frontrunner in the California governor’s race, is being accused of “immigrant stolen valor” after a viral social media post poked holes in his campaign’s family origin story.
New York Post · October 7, 2026 - Steve Hilton drops shock new ad teasing lesbian encounter: ‘What if my dad finds out?’
California GOP gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton dropped a shocking ad teasing a lesbian encounter Thursday, a day after his debate with rival Democrat Xavier Becerra. Hilton launched “Just Try It, California,” the first spot in a six-figure television and…
Freerepublic.com · October 6, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
8 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 California Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Xavier Becerra (D), with roughly a 99% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+20.2.
What do the polls say in the California Governor race?
There are 8 polls of this race. The most recent, from Berkeley IGS (2026-09-20), showed D+25.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+20.2.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 California Governor race?
Xavier Becerra is the Democratic candidate; Steve Hilton is the Republican.
When is the 2026 California Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 California Governor forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Xavier Becerra's (D) lead has widened to 99%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the California Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.