Actual result
R+10.6
Final polls said
R+11.8
8 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independent Market Research | R+11.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Tarrance Group | R+12.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | R+12.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+8.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Forman Center | R+8.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | Harris Insights & Analytics | R+17.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 1998-10-30 | 2819 | R+17.0 | 6 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-27 | 822 | R+8.0 | 3 |
| Tarrance Group | 1998-10-25 | 600 | R+12.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 1998-10-24 | 500 | R+12.0 | 1 |
| Independent Market Research | 1998-10-22 | 670 | R+11.0 | 0 |
| Forman Center | 1998-10-22 | 557 | R+8.0 | 3 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 1998-10-20 | 2295 | R+16.0 | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-17 | 822 | R+10.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-09-23 | 815 | R+15.0 | 4 |
| Forman Center | 1998-09-16 | 403 | R+17.0 | 6 |