Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 10 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+5.4 — a 68% Republican win.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
'Ridiculous and pathetic': MAGA turns on itself over bid to boot controversial candidateA firebrand candidate for governor of Florida who has become infamous for white supremacist antics is being targeted by a lawsuit from one of his opponents to throw him off the ballot — but even some MAGA commentators who oppose that candidate are lashing out…
Raw Story · June 30, 2026
Byron Donalds' Chances of Winning Florida Governor's Seat, New Poll ShowsRepublican Congressman Byron Donalds is trailing Democratic candidate David Jolly in the race to become Florida's next governor, according to a new poll from Change Research, a Democratic-aligned polling firm. The survey could be an encouraging sign for Flori…
Biztoc.com · June 18, 2026
The case that Florida is ready to turn blue againDavid Jolly is the Democrat Party’s likely gubernatorial nominee in Florida. He officially became a Democrat last year. | Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg via Getty Images For decades, Florida was the archetypal presidential swing state — and as recently as 2016 and…
Biztoc.com · June 16, 2026
Presumptive Democrat Nominee for Florida Governor's Running Mate: 'For the Safety of All Floridians,' Illegal Aliens Should Have Driver's LicensesDavid Jolly, the presumptive Democrat nominee for Florida governor, selected a former Biden official who once said "for the safety of all Floridians," illegal aliens should have driver's licenses, as his running mate. The post Presumptive Democrat Nominee for…
Breitbart News · June 12, 2026
Democratic Florida Gov. Candidate Says Trump DOJ’s Indictment of Raúl Castro Is ‘Right Thing to Do’ and ‘Long Overdue’Florida Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Jolly lauded Trump's DOJ for indicting Cuba's Raúl Castro as "the right thing to do" and "long overdue." The post Democratic Florida Gov. Candidate Says Trump DOJ’s Indictment of Raúl Castro Is ‘Right Thing to …
Mediaite · May 20, 2026
It Took a While, but Americans May Have Found Something We All Hate“What up, Council?” said the comedian J.T. Parr, greeting the Pasadena City Council in a surfer persona. Then he got to the point: “Americans are united in our hatred of data centers. They’re big, ugly water guzzlers.”He’s right. America the Polarized has fou…
The New Republic · July 6, 2026
'Ridiculous and pathetic': MAGA turns on itself over bid to boot controversial candidateA firebrand candidate for governor of Florida who has become infamous for white supremacist antics is being targeted by a lawsuit from one of his opponents to throw him off the ballot — but even some MAGA commentators who oppose that candidate are lashing out…
Raw Story · June 30, 2026
As Florida Republicans gather, Donalds eyes November while rival seeks to dent his primary leadNot far from the gaming floor at South Florida’s largest casino, Jay Collins tried to improve his long-shot odds of winning the Republican nomination for governor. By attacking front-runner Byron Donalds, Collins hopes to stall his opponent’s momentum with ju…
Biztoc.com · June 28, 2026
Byron Donalds Calls Out 'Lazy' Senate — 'Ideas Go over There, and They Languish, and They Sit'Thursday on FBN's "Mornings with Maria," Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL), a candidate for Florida governor, blasted the U.S. Senate for its inaction on the so-called SAVE America Act. The post Byron Donalds Calls Out ‘Lazy’ Senate — ‘Ideas Go over There, and They L…
Breitbart News · June 25, 2026
Knives out as scandal-scarred Republicans pile into one Florida race: 'You went to prison!Despite a colorful slate of contenders that includes candidates who have served federal prison sentences, previously left Congress under clouds of scandal, or tried and failed to run for Congress elsewhere, the contest to replace Rep. Byron Donalds in Florida…
Raw Story · June 25, 2026
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Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2026-05-16 | 2070 | D+4.0 |
| Cherry Communications | 2026-05-09 | 604 | R+8.0 |
| The Public Sentiment Institute | 2026-04-27 | 687 | EVEN |
| Stetson University | 2026-04-13 | 848 | R+7.0 |
| Echelon Insights | 2026-04-09 | 406 | R+6.0 |
| MDW Communications | 2026-04-03 | 1834 | R+0.7 |
| Emerson College | 2026-03-31 | 1125 | R+4.8 |
| University of North Florida | 2026-03-02 | 786 | R+6.0 |
| Public Sentiment Institute | 2026-02-20 | 200 | D+6.5 |
| Targoz Market Research | 2026-02-16 | 1200 | R+2.0 |