Florida Governor
Byron Donalds (R) is favored to win the 2026 Florida Governor race — about a 80% chance, winning by about 10 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 12 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 12 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+9.6 — a 80% Republican win.
Latest news
'HE'S DONALD TRUMP'S GUY!': David Jolly challenges GOP rival Byron Donalds to defend Trump's economyFlorida Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Jolly joins MS NOW's Jonathan Capehart to discuss his campaign for Florida ...
Biztoc.com · August 22, 2026
Byron Donalds Blames Trump's Problems On ObamaRepublican Florida nominee for governor Byron Donalds sang the same tired song to defend Trump's destruction of the economy, healthcare, and foreign policy by blaming President Obama and Biden for all their current woes. Taking responsibility for one's actio…
Crooksandliars.com · August 20, 2026
David Jolly: 'I Reject the Left-Right Spectrum'Wednesday on NewsNation’s “Cuomo,” Florida’s Democratic nominee for governor, David Jolly, said he rejects “the left-right spectrum.” Jolly said, “The 6 or 7 years I spent as an independent was the most informative part of my life. I’m in a The post David Jol…
Breitbart News · August 20, 2026
Donalds: David Jolly 'Will Bend the Knee to the Radical Left'Wednesday on Fox News Channel's "Hannity," Florida Republican gubernatorial nominee Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL) warned that despite his Democrat opponent David Jolly disavowing so-called socialist Democrats, he would ultimately "bend the knee" to the radical le…
Breitbart News · August 20, 2026- 5 Things to Know About Byron Donalds, Republican Nominee for Florida Governor - The New York Times
5 Things to Know About Byron Donalds, Republican Nominee for Florida GovernorThe New York Times He Bet Big on Trump. The Prize Could Be the Florida Governor’s Mansion.The New York Times Florida governor's race is setPolitico Byron Donalds may win FL governor.…
Slashdot.org · August 20, 2026
'Idiotic' MAGA Republican measles excuse immediately blows up in his face: 'Awful human'MAGA gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds of Florida sparked an internet firestorm on Sunday after he made a wild claim about the ongoing measles outbreak. Donalds joined CBS News's Margaret Brennan on "Face the Nation" on Sunday, where he was asked about Fl…
Raw Story · Yesterday- 'HE'S DONALD TRUMP'S GUY!': David Jolly challenges GOP rival Byron Donalds to defend Trump's economy
Florida Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Jolly joins MS NOW's Jonathan Capehart to discuss his campaign for Florida ...
Biztoc.com · August 22, 2026 - Byron Donalds Blames Trump's Problems On Obama
Republican Florida nominee for governor Byron Donalds sang the same tired song to defend Trump's destruction of the economy, healthcare, and foreign policy by blaming President Obama and Biden for all their current woes. Taking responsibility for one's actio…
Crooksandliars.com · August 20, 2026 - Donalds: David Jolly 'Will Bend the Knee to the Radical Left'
Wednesday on Fox News Channel's "Hannity," Florida Republican gubernatorial nominee Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL) warned that despite his Democrat opponent David Jolly disavowing so-called socialist Democrats, he would ultimately "bend the knee" to the radical le…
Breitbart News · August 20, 2026 
Governor races present ‘unique moment’ as historic number of Black candidates climbs to 8Across 250 years, only three elected governors out of thousands have been Black –- all Democrats and all men, including current Maryland Gov. Wes Moore. But Moore could soon have company. With Florida Republicans nominating U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds on Tuesday,…
Biztoc.com · August 20, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
12 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Florida Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Byron Donalds (R), with roughly a 80% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+9.6.
What do the polls say in the Florida Governor race?
There are 12 polls of this race. The most recent, from Targoz Market Research (2026-07-26), showed R+7.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+9.6.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Florida Governor race?
David Jolly is the Democratic candidate; Byron Donalds is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Florida Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Florida Governor forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Byron Donalds's (R) lead has widened to 80%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Florida Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.