VotePredictor
all races

Florida Governor

David Jolly (D) vs Byron Donalds (R)

Forecast — win probability
David Jolly (D)
32%
(R) Byron Donalds
68%
Lean R · model margin R+5.4

Why this forecast

This forecast is poll-driven: 10 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+5.4 — a 68% Republican win.

Forecast over time

The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.

0255075100MarAprMayJunJul68% R32% D
Democrats 32% Republicans 68%

Latest news

David Jolly (D)
Byron Donalds (R)

Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.

Polls (10)

PollsterDatenPoll
Change Research2026-05-162070D+4.0
Cherry Communications2026-05-09604R+8.0
The Public Sentiment Institute2026-04-27687EVEN
Stetson University2026-04-13848R+7.0
Echelon Insights2026-04-09406R+6.0
MDW Communications2026-04-031834R+0.7
Emerson College2026-03-311125R+4.8
University of North Florida2026-03-02786R+6.0
Public Sentiment Institute2026-02-20200D+6.5
Targoz Market Research2026-02-161200R+2.0