Florida Governor
Byron Donalds (R) is the clear favorite to win the 2026 Florida Governor race — about a 90% chance, winning by about 6 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 4 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 4 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+6.4 — a 90% Republican win.
Latest news
- Florida poll: Republicans lead in the races for governor and Senate
Republican Byron Donalds holds a 7-percentage-point advantage over Democrat David Jolly in the Florida governor’s race, according to a new NBC South Florida/Telemundo Station Group poll, while Republican Sen. Ashley Moody is up by 10 points in her matchup aga…
Freerepublic.com · Today 
David Jolly Within Striking Distance of Byron Donalds: Florida PollDemocrat David Jolly is trailing Republican Representative Byron Donalds by just 2 points in the race for Florida governor, according to a new YouGov poll, the latest sign that the contest to succeed Governor Ron DeSantis is tighter than many expected. The su…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday- Byron Donalds is Trying to Convince Black Floridians to Trust a Top Trump Ally
Byron Donalds wants to make history as the first Black elected governor of Florida. But first, he has to convince Black voters that electing a Black governor who is one of President Donald Trump’s biggest allies is actually a win. That’s proving harder than t…
The Root · Yesterday - Florida Democrat David Jolly ‘Begging’ for Money After Ritz Carlton Hotel Habit
Florida Democrat Gubernatorial candidate David Jolly went on the record last week openly “begging” national Democrats to pour money into his race against Republican Byron Donalds. However, Jolly made a habit of staying in Ritz Carlton hotels in at least six s…
Freerepublic.com · October 5, 2026 
Florida Democrat David Jolly 'Begging' for Money After Ritz Carlton Hotel HabitFlorida Democrat Gubernatorial candidate David Jolly went on the record last week openly "begging" national Democrats to pour money into his race against Republican Byron Donalds. However, Jolly made a habit of staying in Ritz Carlton hotels in at least six s…
Breitbart News · October 5, 2026
- Florida poll: Republicans lead in the races for governor and Senate
Republican Byron Donalds holds a 7-percentage-point advantage over Democrat David Jolly in the Florida governor’s race, according to a new NBC South Florida/Telemundo Station Group poll, while Republican Sen. Ashley Moody is up by 10 points in her matchup aga…
Freerepublic.com · Today - David Jolly Within Striking Distance of Byron Donalds: Florida Poll
Democrat David Jolly is trailing Republican Representative Byron Donalds by just 2 points in the race for Florida governor, according to a new YouGov poll, the latest sign that the contest to succeed Governor Ron DeSantis is tighter than many expected. The su…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday - Byron Donalds is Trying to Convince Black Floridians to Trust a Top Trump Ally
Byron Donalds wants to make history as the first Black elected governor of Florida. But first, he has to convince Black voters that electing a Black governor who is one of President Donald Trump’s biggest allies is actually a win. That’s proving harder than t…
The Root · Yesterday 
Poll Shows Florida GOP Holding Lead as Democrats Lag Among Hispanic VotersRepublicans Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody lead their Democrat opponents by seven and ten percentage points, respectively, in Florida’s races for governor and U.S. Senate, according to a new Mason-Dixon poll. The post Poll Shows Florida GOP Holding Lead as De…
Breitbart News · Yesterday
Another MAGA Candidate Suddenly Wipes Trump From His WebsiteRick Jackson, the Republican gubernatorial nominee in Georgia, is the latest MAGA candidate to delete mentions of President Donald Trump from his campaign website.A version of Jackson’s website from June stated that he “will work with President Trump to prote…
The New Republic · October 5, 2026
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The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Florida Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Byron Donalds (R), with roughly a 90% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+6.4.
What do the polls say in the Florida Governor race?
There are 4 polls of this race. The most recent, from Change Research (2026-09-27), showed D+2.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+6.4.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Florida Governor race?
David Jolly is the Democratic candidate; Byron Donalds is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Florida Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Florida Governor forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Byron Donalds's (R) lead has widened to 90%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Florida Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.