Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 11 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+8.0 — a 79% Republican win.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
- Opinion - Why a Trump enemy could win a solid Republican Florida Senate seat
In Florida's upcoming Senate race, Democrat Alexander Vindman is challenging Trump-loyal incumbent Ashley Moody, with recent polls showing a competitive race...
The Hill · May 29, 2026
Trump Impeacher Alex Vindman Urges ‘Lower the Temperature’ After WHCD Shooting Despite Comparing MAGA to NazisAlexander Vindman, who is running against incumbent Ashley Moody (R-FL) for Senate, urged a reduction in political tensions following a shooting at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner despite a record of past social media posts attacking President Trump, R…
Breitbart News · April 29, 2026- Conniving Effort – Alexander Vindman Launches Democrat Senate Campaign in Florida
This is infuriating, and entirely due to something else in the background {GO DEEP}. Former National Security Council member (Russia/EurAsia desk) Alexander Vindman is running for a Florida senate seat against Republican Ashley Moody. First, Alexander Vindman…
Freerepublic.com · January 30, 2026
Trump impeachment whistleblower Vindman launches Democratic Senate run in FloridaAlexander Vindman, who testified in Trump's first impeachment, launches Democratic Senate campaign in Florida to challenge GOP Sen. Ashley Moody in 2026 race.
Fox News · January 27, 2026
Trump impeachment star witness kicks off campaign for Florida SenateAlexander Vindman is an underdog attempting to dispatch GOP Sen. Ashley Moody, who took Secretary of State Marco Rubio's old seat earlier this year.
New York Post · January 27, 2026
Florida AG intervened in developer disputes after raking in donationsFlorida’s attorney general is giving at least two South Florida developers caught in legal battles a helping hand after they gave him thousands of dollars in campaign donations. James Uthmeier’s office intervened in cases involving Two Roads Development and W…
The Real Deal · July 8, 2026
Trump's niece sends 'resounding message' to her uncle with move in his own 'backyard'Mary Trump is once again training her fire on her uncle — this time throwing her weight behind a Senate campaign in Florida, the state President Donald Trump now calls home.In an email sent on behalf of Senate candidate Alex Vindman, the psychologist and outs…
Raw Story · June 30, 2026- Thune and Senate still using pro-forma sessions
@OcrazioCornPop Senator Ashley Moody (R-FL) just gaveled in her SECOND pro forma session in two days for @LeaderJohnThune, BLOCKING work on the SAVE America Act AND Trump's recess appointments! The Senate is OFF FOR 19 DAYS! SHOULDN'T @realDonaldTrump use Art…
Freerepublic.com · June 28, 2026 - AIF Poll Shows Ashley Moody Leading Alex Vindman in Senate Race
U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody leads Democrat Alex Vindman in Florida’s U.S. Senate race, according to a new poll released by the Associated Industries of Florida (AIF) Center for Political Strategy. The survey found Moody, the AIF-endorsed candidate, with 47% suppor…
Freerepublic.com · June 22, 2026
Barbara Streisand supports Alex Vindman in Florida's pivotal raceEGOT-winning singer and actress Barbra Streisand lent her star power to retired Army lieutenant colonel Alex Vindman's Democratic Senate campaign in Florida.During a fundraising appeal, Streisand warned the Trump administration is "raising costs, undermining …
Raw Story · June 15, 2026
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Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2026-06-14 | 1273 | R+3.0 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2026-06-07 | 800 | R+7.0 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2026-05-21 | 1000 | R+3.0 |
| Change Research | 2026-05-16 | 2070 | D+2.0 |
| Cherry Communications | 2026-05-09 | 604 | R+8.0 |
| Stetson University | 2026-04-13 | 848 | R+7.0 |
| Echelon Insights | 2026-04-09 | 406 | R+7.0 |
| MDW Communications | 2026-04-03 | 1834 | R+1.0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-04-03 | 574 | R+3.0 |
| Emerson College | 2026-03-31 | 1125 | R+7.9 |
| University of North Florida | 2026-03-02 | 786 | R+7.0 |