VotePredictor
all races

Florida Senate

Alexander Vindman (D) vs Ashley Moody (R)

Forecast — win probability
Alexander Vindman (D)
21%
(R) Ashley Moody
79%
Lean R · model margin R+8.0

Why this forecast

This forecast is poll-driven: 11 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+8.0 — a 79% Republican win.

Forecast over time

The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.

0255075100AprMayJunJul79% R21% D
Democrats 21% Republicans 79%

Latest news

Alexander Vindman (D)
Ashley Moody (R)

Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.

Polls (11)

PollsterDatenPoll
Change Research2026-06-141273R+3.0
McLaughlin & Associates2026-06-07800R+7.0
Global Strategy Group2026-05-211000R+3.0
Change Research2026-05-162070D+2.0
Cherry Communications2026-05-09604R+8.0
Stetson University2026-04-13848R+7.0
Echelon Insights2026-04-09406R+7.0
MDW Communications2026-04-031834R+1.0
Public Policy Polling2026-04-03574R+3.0
Emerson College2026-03-311125R+7.9
University of North Florida2026-03-02786R+7.0