Florida Senate
Ashley Moody (R) is the clear favorite to win the 2026 Florida Senate race — about a 87% chance, winning by about 11 points in the projection. Updated daily from 12 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 12 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+11.4 — a 87% Republican win.
Latest news
"Unbought & Unbossed": Angie Nixon on Winning Democratic Senate Race in Florida, DSA Membership & MoreProgressive state Representative Angie Nixon pulled off a stunning victory in Florida last week, defeating the establishment-backed centrist candidate Alexander Vindman to win the state’s Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. Vindman, a former Army intellige…
Democracy Now! · Today
Surprise election upset shows hating Trump is no longer enough as Democratic voters turn to new playbookAlexander Vindman, a key witness in Trump's first impeachment, lost Florida's Democratic Senate primary to a socialist by double digits.
Fox News · August 21, 2026
Democrat Alexander Vindman Giving Away Failed Campaign's Millions to 'Put a Check on Donald Trump's Power'Florida's failed U.S. Senate candidate Alexander Vindman is planning to give away millions in campaign funds to fight President Trump. The post Democrat Alexander Vindman Giving Away Failed Campaign’s Millions to ‘Put a Check on Donald Trump’s Power’ appeared…
Breitbart News · August 21, 2026
For Trump, Alexander Vindman’s primary defeat in Florida simply wasn’t enoughOne of the most dramatic and memorable moments of the first congressional impeachment hearings against Donald Trump came in November 2019, when Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman addressed his father, who was born in the former Soviet Union. “Dad, my sitting here tod…
Biztoc.com · August 21, 2026
FNC's Ingraham: Angie Nixon the 'Best Midterm News for the Republicans Since Graham Platner and Francesca Hong'During her Wednesday broadcast monologue, Fox News Channel host Laura Ingraham called Angie Nixon's upset win over her Democrat primary challenger, Alexander Vindman, in Tuesday's Florida Democratic U.S. senatorial primary good news for Republicans. The post …
Breitbart News · August 20, 2026
- "Unbought & Unbossed": Angie Nixon on Winning Democratic Senate Race in Florida, DSA Membership & More
Progressive state Representative Angie Nixon pulled off a stunning victory in Florida last week, defeating the establishment-backed centrist candidate Alexander Vindman to win the state’s Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. Vindman, a former Army intellige…
Democracy Now! · Today - How a Progressive Democrat in Florida Gave Her Party New Hope — and New Fears - The New York Times
How a Progressive Democrat in Florida Gave Her Party New Hope — and New FearsThe New York Times 'Stop gaslighting me!': Florida Democrats' Senate nominee and party chair have heated call over socialismAxios The ‘Resistance’ WonThe Atlantic Surprise election u…
Slashdot.org · August 22, 2026 
FL DSA Candidate Angie Nixon Compares ICE Agents to ‘Modern-Day Slave Catchers,’ Calls Enforcement ‘State-Sanctioned Violence’Florida Democrat Senate candidate Angie Nixon has repeatedly attacked Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), calling its officers “THUGS” and “kidnappers,” comparing immigration detention facilities to a “modern day concentration camp,” and arguing that t…
Breitbart News · August 22, 2026
Florida’s GOP Has a Very Short Playbook: Call Everyone a SocialistIn a bright red power suit, Ashley Moody, the former Florida attorney general who nabbed the state’s GOP Senate nomination in Tuesday’s primary, strolled onto the stage of Florida Republicans’ “Victory Rally” on Thursday and did not waste time attacking her o…
Mother Jones · August 21, 2026
Democratic socialist speaks to BBC after shock win in Florida primaryNixon now faces a tough campaign against incumbent Republican Senator Ashley Moody in November.
BBC News · August 21, 2026
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The polls behind it
12 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Florida Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Ashley Moody (R), with roughly a 87% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+11.4.
What do the polls say in the Florida Senate race?
There are 12 polls of this race. The most recent, from University of North Florida (2026-07-17), showed R+10.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+11.4.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Florida Senate race?
Alexander Vindman is the Democratic candidate; Ashley Moody is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Florida Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Florida Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.