Florida Senate
Ashley Moody (R) is all but certain to win the 2026 Florida Senate race — about a 98% chance, winning by about 8 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 6 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 6 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+8.4 — a 98% Republican win.
Latest news
Black Democrats are facing a crossroadsDemocratic US Senate candidate, Florida state Rep. Angie Nixon. | Getty Images Welcome to The Midterms, Actually. Every week I’ll be writing about two things: one big idea or trend I see forming across the 2026 primaries, and one thing I’m hearing from a voi…
Biztoc.com · Today- Florida poll: Republicans lead in the races for governor and Senate
Republican Byron Donalds holds a 7-percentage-point advantage over Democrat David Jolly in the Florida governor’s race, according to a new NBC South Florida/Telemundo Station Group poll, while Republican Sen. Ashley Moody is up by 10 points in her matchup aga…
Freerepublic.com · Today - Byron Donalds is Trying to Convince Black Floridians to Trust a Top Trump Ally
Byron Donalds wants to make history as the first Black elected governor of Florida. But first, he has to convince Black voters that electing a Black governor who is one of President Donald Trump’s biggest allies is actually a win. That’s proving harder than t…
The Root · Yesterday 
Florida Isn’t Red. Democrats Just Stopped Showing Up.Camille Rivera With more than 900,000 Puerto Rican voters, Florida can be won in 2026 and put in play for 2028. Give Angie Nixon the chance she deserves. The post Florida Isn’t Red. Democrats Just Stopped Showing Up. appeared first on The Nation.
Thenation.com · Yesterday
Democrat Angie Nixon Responds to JD Vance Telling Socialists to Leave by Talking About 'His Eyeliner'Florida's Democrat Senate candidate Angie Nixon's response to Vice President JD Vance telling socialists to leave the country involves talking about "his eyeliner." The post Democrat Angie Nixon Responds to JD Vance Telling Socialists to Leave by Talking Abou…
Breitbart News · October 5, 2026
- Florida poll: Republicans lead in the races for governor and Senate
Republican Byron Donalds holds a 7-percentage-point advantage over Democrat David Jolly in the Florida governor’s race, according to a new NBC South Florida/Telemundo Station Group poll, while Republican Sen. Ashley Moody is up by 10 points in her matchup aga…
Freerepublic.com · Today - Democratic candidate Nixon backs Delray Islamic center, brands questioning residents 'far-right extremists'.
Nixon, a Jacksonville Democratic Socialist and Florida state representative running against Sen. Ashley Moody in the Nov. 3 special election, released a statement defending the Islamic center and school after a Friday public meeting drew roughly 300 people. T…
Freerepublic.com · Yesterday 
Poll Shows Florida GOP Holding Lead as Democrats Lag Among Hispanic VotersRepublicans Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody lead their Democrat opponents by seven and ten percentage points, respectively, in Florida’s races for governor and U.S. Senate, according to a new Mason-Dixon poll. The post Poll Shows Florida GOP Holding Lead as De…
Breitbart News · Yesterday- 4 ways the midterm elections could turn out, with a month to go
Democrats are heading into the last month of the midterm elections campaign with ambitions going deeper and deeper into red territory, while Republicans are grim about their hopes of holding on to either chamber of Congress. Historically, the opposition part…
Yahoo Entertainment · October 5, 2026 
JD Vance Lobs Racist Lie-Filled Attack On Angie NixonVice President JD Vance campaigned in Lakeland, Florida Thursday and spewed out a lie-filled racist attack on Democratic Senate nominee Angie Nixon as if he wore a white hood. During a long speech, Vance finally got to Nixon. "You've got some real choice Demo…
Crooksandliars.com · October 2, 2026
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The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Florida Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Ashley Moody (R), with roughly a 98% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+8.4.
What do the polls say in the Florida Senate race?
There are 6 polls of this race. The most recent, from Change Research (2026-09-27), showed R+1.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+8.4.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Florida Senate race?
Angie Nixon is the Democratic candidate; Ashley Moody is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Florida Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Florida Senate forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Ashley Moody's (R) lead has widened to 98%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Florida Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.