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Florida 2026 elections

Everything on Florida's 2026 ballot and in its congressional delegation, in one place: the Senate and Governor races, 4 competitive U.S. House districts, 2 senators and 27 representatives — each with a daily-updated forecast or voting record.

Statewide races

Florida
Senate
No forecast
Nominee changed — Nixon won the primary
Florida
Governor
80%
R+9.6

Competitive House districts (4)

District forecasts are fundamentals-based (no district polls yet) — presidential lean, incumbency, and the national environment. Click one to see why.

FL-25new map
Toss-up
51% · D+0.2
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+9.2, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+1.4; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.3) shifts every district 1.6 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+0.2 — a 51% Democratic win. Full race details →
FL-9new map
Lean R
73% · R+4.2
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+17.9, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+5.8; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.3) shifts every district 1.6 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+4.2 — a 73% Republican win. Full race details →
FL-22new map
Likely R
89% · R+8.5
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+10.4, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+10.1; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.3) shifts every district 1.6 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+8.5 — a 89% Republican win. Full race details →
FL-14new map
Likely D
90% · D+8.8
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+10.6, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+7.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.3) shifts every district 1.6 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+8.8 — a 90% Democratic win. Full race details →

U.S. Senators

Ashley MoodyR · U.S. SenatorRick ScottR · U.S. Senator

U.S. Representatives (27)

Jimmy PatronisR · District 1Neal P. DunnR · District 2Kat CammackR · District 3Aaron BeanR · District 4John H. RutherfordR · District 5Randy FineR · District 6Cory MillsR · District 7Mike HaridopolosR · District 8Darren SotoD · District 9Maxwell FrostD · District 10Daniel WebsterR · District 11Gus M. BilirakisR · District 12Anna Paulina LunaR · District 13Kathy CastorD · District 14Laurel M. LeeR · District 15Vern BuchananR · District 16W. Gregory SteubeR · District 17Scott FranklinR · District 18Byron DonaldsR · District 19Brian J. MastR · District 21Lois FrankelD · District 22Jared MoskowitzD · District 23Frederica S. WilsonD · District 24Debbie Wasserman SchultzD · District 25Mario Diaz-BalartR · District 26Maria Elvira SalazarR · District 27Carlos A. GimenezR · District 28

Past results

Every U.S. Senate election in Florida we hold a result for. Both of the state's Senate seats, which are elected on separate cycles.

YearWinnerMargin
2024Rick Scott(R)R+12.8
2022Marco Rubio(R)R+16.4
2018Rick Scott(R)R+0.1
2016Marco Rubio(R)R+7.7
2012Bill Nelson(D)D+13.0
2010Marco Rubio(R)R+28.7
2006Bill Nelson(D)D+22.2
2004Mel Martinez(R)R+1.1
2000Bill Nelson(D)D+4.8
1998Bob Graham(D)D+24.9

Past results

Every Florida election for governor we hold a result for.

YearWinnerMargin
2022Ron DeSantis(R)R+19.4
2018Ron DeSantis(R)R+0.4
2014Rick Scott(R)R+1.1
2010Rick Scott(R)R+1.1
2006Charlie Crist(R)R+7.1
2002Jeb Bush(R)R+12.8
1998Jeb Bush(R)R+10.6

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