Florida 2026 elections
Everything on Florida's 2026 ballot and in its congressional delegation, in one place: the Senate and Governor races, 4 competitive U.S. House districts, and its 2 senators and 27 representatives — each with a daily-updated forecast or voting record.
Statewide races
Competitive House districts (4)
District forecasts are fundamentals-based (no district polls yet) — presidential lean, incumbency, and the national environment. Click one to see why.
FL-27Maria Elvira Salazar (R) · incumbent · pres lean R+11.3Toss-up52% · D+0.3
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.3, held by Maria Elvira Salazar (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+4.6; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+0.3 — a 52% Democratic win.
FL-11Daniel Webster (R) · incumbent · pres lean R+14.8Lean R80% · R+5.8
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+14.8, held by Daniel Webster (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+10.7; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+5.8 — a 80% Republican win.
FL-15Laurel Lee (R) · incumbent · pres lean R+9.0Lean R81% · R+6.2
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+9.0, held by Laurel Lee (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+11.1; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.2 — a 81% Republican win.
FL-21Brian Mast (R) · incumbent · pres lean R+15.0Likely R86% · R+7.4
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+15.0, held by Brian Mast (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+12.3; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+7.4 — a 86% Republican win.