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Florida 2026 elections
Everything on Florida's 2026 ballot and in its congressional delegation, in one place: the Senate and Governor races, 10 competitive U.S. House districts, 2 senators and 27 representatives — each with a daily-updated forecast or voting record.
Statewide races
Competitive House districts (10)
District forecasts are fundamentals-based — presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment — with district polling blended in where it exists. Click one to see why.
A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+10.6, held by Kathy Castor (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+5.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.8) shifts every district 3.0 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+0.6 — a 54% Democratic win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+10.4, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+7.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.8) shifts every district 3.0 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+2.6 — a 66% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+9.2, held by Jared Moskowitz (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+6.1; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.8) shifts every district 3.0 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+3.1 — a 54% Republican win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 3 district polls. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+13.4, held by Anna Paulina Luna (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+12.6; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.8) shifts every district 3.0 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+5.5 — a 85% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+12.0, held by Aaron Bean (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+8.8; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.8) shifts every district 3.0 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+5.8 — a 85% Republican win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 2 district polls. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+14.7, held by María Elvira Salazar (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+13.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.8) shifts every district 3.0 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+6.1 — a 87% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+12.6, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+9.5; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.8) shifts every district 3.0 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.5 — a 80% Republican win. Full race details →
A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+13.8, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+10.7; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.8) shifts every district 3.0 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+6.9 — a 87% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+15.8, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+12.7; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.8) shifts every district 3.0 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+9.7 — a 89% Republican win. Full race details →
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+17.9, held by Darren Soto (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+14.8; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.8) shifts every district 3.0 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+11.8 — a 89% Republican win. Full race details →
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives (27)
Jimmy PatronisR · District 1Neal P. DunnR · District 2Kat CammackR · District 3Aaron BeanR · District 4John H. RutherfordR · District 5Randy FineR · District 6Cory MillsR · District 7Mike HaridopolosR · District 8Darren SotoD · District 9Maxwell FrostD · District 10Daniel WebsterR · District 11Gus M. BilirakisR · District 12Anna Paulina LunaR · District 13Kathy CastorD · District 14Laurel M. LeeR · District 15Vern BuchananR · District 16W. Gregory SteubeR · District 17Scott FranklinR · District 18Byron DonaldsR · District 19Brian J. MastR · District 21Lois FrankelD · District 22Jared MoskowitzD · District 23Frederica S. WilsonD · District 24Debbie Wasserman SchultzD · District 25Mario Diaz-BalartR · District 26Maria Elvira SalazarR · District 27Carlos A. GimenezR · District 28
Past results
Every U.S. Senate election in Florida we hold a result for. Both of the state's Senate seats, which are elected on separate cycles.
YearWinnerMargin
Past results
Every Florida election for governor we hold a result for.
YearWinnerMargin