Actual result
D+5.8
Final polls said
R+2.8
4 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake Research & Strategy, Inc. | EVEN | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 2 | Selzer & Co. | R+4.0 | 9.8 | ✗ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+5.0 | 10.8 | ✗ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selzer & Co. | 1998-10-29 | 800 | R+4.0 | 10 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-26 | 803 | R+5.0 | 11 |
| Drake Research & Strategy, Inc. | 1998-10-25 | 408 | EVEN | 6 |
| Drake Research & Strategy, Inc. | 1998-10-19 | 408 | R+2.0 | 8 |
| Drake Research & Strategy, Inc. | 1998-10-13 | 408 | R+8.0 | 14 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-12 | 809 | R+18.0 | 24 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-09-13 | 804 | R+22.0 | 28 |