Iowa Governor
Rob Sand (D) is favored to win the 2026 Iowa Governor race — about a 84% chance, winning by about 5 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 11 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 11 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+4.8 — a 84% Democratic win.
Latest news
Dem Gov Smacks Iowa Gov Candidate Who Lives In KansasKansas Governor Laura Kelly took a swing at Iowa Republican Zach Lahn in a clever ad for his opponent. Lahn is running for Governor in Iowa, but he actually lives in Kansas. Gov. Kelly's attack is effective and brutal. Kansas Gov. Kelly “Supports Her Constit…
Crooksandliars.com · Today
Zach Lahn’s residency history and Rob Sand’s party come under fire in first Iowa governor debateRepublican Zach Lahn and Democrat Rob Sand repeatedly returned to one topic over the course of their first debate Tuesday night in the race to be Iowa’s next governor: questions over Lahn’s residency history in the state.
NBC News · Yesterday
Kansas governor exposes Iowa Republican's carpetbagging in brutal ad: 'Time to come back'A new attack ad hit the airwaves on Tuesday, featuring Gov. Laura Kelly (D-KS), exposing Iowa Republican gubernatorial candidate Zach Lahn for not fully living in the state where he is running."Kansas Governor Laura Kelly here," said Kelly. "It's my great hon…
Raw Story · October 6, 2026
Rob Sand vs. Zach Lahn: Latest Polls as Iowa Governor Candidates DebateDemocrats have spent much of the past decade watching Iowa move steadily toward the GOP. But less than a month before Election Day, the state's governor's race is raising an increasingly serious question: Is Iowa beginning to shift back? Democratic State Audi…
Biztoc.com · October 6, 2026
Exclusive—Zach Lahn: Rob Sand Running as Moderate but Has ‘Radically Liberal Views, Is Not Being Honest About Who He Is'; Iowa Race a ‘Fight for the Culture’Iowa GOP Gov. nominee Zach Lahn outlines his turnout strategy and credits Republican leadership for a $15 billion steel investment in a Breitbart interview,. The post Exclusive—Zach Lahn: Rob Sand Running as Moderate but Has ‘Radically Liberal Views, Is Not B…
Breitbart News · October 3, 2026
- Dem Gov Smacks Iowa Gov Candidate Who Lives In Kansas
Kansas Governor Laura Kelly took a swing at Iowa Republican Zach Lahn in a clever ad for his opponent. Lahn is running for Governor in Iowa, but he actually lives in Kansas. Gov. Kelly's attack is effective and brutal. Kansas Gov. Kelly “Supports Her Constit…
Crooksandliars.com · Today - Zach Lahn’s residency history and Rob Sand’s party come under fire in first Iowa governor debate
Republican Zach Lahn and Democrat Rob Sand repeatedly returned to one topic over the course of their first debate Tuesday night in the race to be Iowa’s next governor: questions over Lahn’s residency history in the state.
NBC News · Yesterday 
Trump OKs dyed-diesel tax break, helping farmers and truckers save BIGLYPresident Donald Trump has taken a major step to shield American truckers and farmers from the high cost of fuel.On Monday, Trump signed an executive order allowing them to use dyed diesel without paying a federal penalty.'The president listened to farmers an…
TheBlaze · October 6, 2026- Kansas governor exposes Iowa Republican's carpetbagging in brutal ad: 'Time to come back'
A new attack ad hit the airwaves on Tuesday, featuring Gov. Laura Kelly (D-KS), exposing Iowa Republican gubernatorial candidate Zach Lahn for not fully living in the state where he is running."Kansas Governor Laura Kelly here," said Kelly. "It's my great hon…
Raw Story · October 6, 2026 - Rob Sand vs. Zach Lahn: Latest Polls as Iowa Governor Candidates Debate
Democrats have spent much of the past decade watching Iowa move steadily toward the GOP. But less than a month before Election Day, the state's governor's race is raising an increasingly serious question: Is Iowa beginning to shift back? Democratic State Audi…
Biztoc.com · October 6, 2026
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The polls behind it
11 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Iowa Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Rob Sand (D), with roughly a 84% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+4.8.
What do the polls say in the Iowa Governor race?
There are 11 polls of this race. The most recent, from CNN/SSRS (2026-10-05), showed D+9.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+4.8.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Iowa Governor race?
Rob Sand is the Democratic candidate; Zach Lahn is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Iowa Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Iowa Governor forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Rob Sand's (D) lead has widened to 84%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Iowa Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.