Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 5 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+4.2 — a 64% Democratic win.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
Republicans get bad news in Iowa as they fail to boot spoiler candidateRepublicans in Iowa got a blow this week as a third-party candidate they were hoping to get off the ballot in the Senate contest remains standing — and poses a threat to their nominee, Rep. Ashley Hinson.Laura Belin of the progressive site Bleeding Heartland …
Raw Story · June 16, 2026
MAGA candidate rages over claims he carpetbagged from two states over: 'Complete lie!'A far-right gubernatorial candidate in Iowa is already facing questions about his residency just after winning the Republican nomination — and is going on the offensive against the accusations.Zach Lahn, a businessman and farmer running on a platform aligned …
Raw Story · June 9, 2026- Instagram is finally letting everyone reorganize their profile grid - The Verge
Instagram is finally letting everyone reorganize their profile gridThe Verge Meta debuts new Instagram feature that allows users to rearrange posts on profile gridABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos Instagram releases profile grid rearrangingSoci…
Slashdot.org · June 9, 2026 
Rob Sand rallies with Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear as Democrats aim to flip Iowa governor seatRob Sand rallied a crowd for the first time as the official Democratic nominee for Iowa governor on Sunday
Abcnews.com · June 8, 2026
Rob Sand to rally in Iowa governor bid with Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear as Democrats eye a flipRob Sand will rally a crowd for the first time as the official Democratic nominee for Iowa governor on Sunday
Abcnews.com · June 7, 2026
Hookup site leak spurs denial from 'family values' GOP candidateA married Iowa Republican campaigning for state lieutenant governor on a “traditional family values” platform has denied setting up a 2016 account linked to his email address on Adult Friend Finder, a hookup service for people seeking casual relationships.Der…
Raw Story · July 2, 2026- Republicans get bad news in Iowa as they fail to boot spoiler candidate
Republicans in Iowa got a blow this week as a third-party candidate they were hoping to get off the ballot in the Senate contest remains standing — and poses a threat to their nominee, Rep. Ashley Hinson.Laura Belin of the progressive site Bleeding Heartland …
Raw Story · June 16, 2026 
Steak 'n Shake Brags Endorsement of Iowa MAHA Candidate Zach Lahn Proved Correct: 'We Like Getting It Right'Restaurant chain Steak n' Shake is highlighting that it made the right choice in endorsing a Republican candidate in an Iowa primary race. The post Steak ‘n Shake Brags Endorsement of Iowa MAHA Candidate Zach Lahn Proved Correct: ‘We Like Getting It Right’ ap…
Breitbart News · June 6, 2026
Red state warned it now faces a ‘time bomb’ ready to detonateWith the primaries over, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand said Thursday his general election approach will remain focused on bipartisanship and finding “reasonable” solutions for Iowans as he faces off against businessman Zach Lahn in November.Sand…
Raw Story · June 5, 2026
'Whoo!' Data guru warns 'rural revolt' is turning 'field of dreams' into Trump nightmarePresident Donald Trump is facing a "rural revolt" as a result of his policies, according to a new data analysis.The soon-to-be-80-year-old president was re-elected in 2024 on his promise to improve the economy, but voters aren't happy with the job he's done s…
Raw Story · June 5, 2026
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Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2026-06-27 | 1003 | D+9.0 |
| Cygnal | 2026-06-19 | 600 | D+4.3 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | 2026-06-17 | 600 | D+1.0 |
| Echelon Insights | 2026-04-09 | 377 | D+12.0 |
| GBAO Strategies | 2026-03-16 | 1200 | D+8.0 |