Iowa Governor
Rob Sand (D) is a modest favorite to win the 2026 Iowa Governor race — about a 62% chance, winning by about 3 points in the projection, though it has tightened lately. Updated daily from 6 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 6 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+3.4 — a 62% Democratic win.
Latest news
Why Democrats Must Embrace a “Mom Populist” Education AgendaPease Elementary in downtown Austin, Texas, has sat empty since 2020. Formerly the oldest continuously operating school in Texas, Pease was shuttered by the Austin Independent School District to save money. On a steamy day this summer, the hulking structure p…
The New Republic · Today
Republican misfires with bogus attack ad on opponent's wealth — who's worth 10 times lessMAGA businessman Zach Lahn is out with a new TV spot hitting at his Democratic rival for governor of Iowa, state auditor Rob Sand. But a major detail of his ad was completely false."On our farm here in Belle Plain, we see it every day. Gas, groceries, everyth…
Raw Story · August 21, 2026
Exclusive -- Iowa GOP Governor Candidate Slams Democrat in Ad For Massive Tax Hike PlotRepublican Iowa gubernatorial candidate Zach Lahn released a campaign ad Thursday saying Democrat rival Rob Sand plans to raise the average Iowan's taxes by $7,500 a year. The post Exclusive — Iowa GOP Governor Candidate Slams Democrat in Ad For Massive Tax H…
Breitbart News · August 20, 2026
Why the GOP’s Pushing a “Satanic Wedding” Story in This RaceYou’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonThis could be Dems’ best chance to flip a House seat in IowaSarah Trone Garriott m…
The New Republic · August 20, 2026
Florida’s Democratic Senate Primary Isn’t What It SeemsYou’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonFlorida’s Senate primary isn’t what it seemsOn the surface, Angie Nixon’s and Alex…
The New Republic · August 18, 2026
- Why Democrats Must Embrace a “Mom Populist” Education Agenda
Pease Elementary in downtown Austin, Texas, has sat empty since 2020. Formerly the oldest continuously operating school in Texas, Pease was shuttered by the Austin Independent School District to save money. On a steamy day this summer, the hulking structure p…
The New Republic · Today - Republican misfires with bogus attack ad on opponent's wealth — who's worth 10 times less
MAGA businessman Zach Lahn is out with a new TV spot hitting at his Democratic rival for governor of Iowa, state auditor Rob Sand. But a major detail of his ad was completely false."On our farm here in Belle Plain, we see it every day. Gas, groceries, everyth…
Raw Story · August 21, 2026 - Exclusive -- Iowa GOP Governor Candidate Slams Democrat in Ad For Massive Tax Hike Plot
Republican Iowa gubernatorial candidate Zach Lahn released a campaign ad Thursday saying Democrat rival Rob Sand plans to raise the average Iowan's taxes by $7,500 a year. The post Exclusive — Iowa GOP Governor Candidate Slams Democrat in Ad For Massive Tax H…
Breitbart News · August 20, 2026 - Why the GOP’s Pushing a “Satanic Wedding” Story in This Race
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonThis could be Dems’ best chance to flip a House seat in IowaSarah Trone Garriott m…
The New Republic · August 20, 2026 
Iowa Candidate Points to Farming Practices as Root Cause of Rising Cancer RatesIowa has the second-highest rate of cancer in the country, and both candidates for governor are putting this issue at the forefront of their campaigns. At an event with the American Cancer Society, MAHA Republican nominee for governor Zach Lahn said the state…
Daily Signal · August 19, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Iowa Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Rob Sand (D), with roughly a 62% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+3.4.
What do the polls say in the Iowa Governor race?
There are 6 polls of this race. The most recent, from Emerson College (2026-08-04), showed D+5.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+3.4.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Iowa Governor race?
Rob Sand is the Democratic candidate; Zach Lahn is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Iowa Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Iowa Governor forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, the race has tightened; Rob Sand (D) is now favored at 62%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Iowa Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.