Actual result
R+26.4
Final polls said
R+44.0
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+36.0 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Harris Insights & Analytics | R+41.0 | 14.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Millersville University Center for Politics and Public Affairs | R+51.0 | 24.6 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 1998-10-30 | 1812 | R+41.0 | 15 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-26 | 807 | R+36.0 | 10 |
| Millersville University Center for Politics and Public Affairs | 1998-10-25 | 481 | R+51.0 | 25 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 1998-10-20 | 1611 | R+48.0 | 22 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-05 | 801 | R+34.0 | 8 |
| Millersville University Center for Politics and Public Affairs | 1998-09-27 | 629 | R+39.0 | 13 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-09-15 | 806 | R+36.0 | 10 |