Pennsylvania Governor
Josh Shapiro (D) is the clear favorite to win the 2026 Pennsylvania Governor race — about a 94% chance, winning by about 17 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 9 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 9 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+17.4 — a 94% Democratic win.
Latest news
PA governor blasts Trump's 'trade war' with CanadaPennsylvania Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro said United States President Donald Trump's strategy of "doubling down on his reckless trade war" with Canada is harming American citizens."He's not only ...
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
The ‘All in on AI’ Governor Backtracks on His Own PolicyPennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro announced a new round of sweeping restrictions on artificial intelligence data centers on Tuesday, marking a swift reversal of his original views on the issue. “Many politicians and political candidates, noticing growing public …
Daily Signal · August 21, 2026
Garrity calls for Shapiro to return $5.7M in data center-related campaign donationsRepublican gubernatorial candidate Stacy Garrity on Friday called for Gov. Josh Shapiro to return $5.7 million in political contributions from what she described as “out-of-state data center interests.” Garrity’s call came three days after S…
TribLIVE · August 21, 2026
Pennsylvania crash: State police helicopter, Cessna plane collide midairUS News: US transportation secretary Sean Duffy said he is in touch with Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro following a mid-air collision between a Pennsylvani.
The Times of India · August 20, 2026
State police helicopter involved in crash at Carlisle Airport, Shapiro saysCARLISLE — Governor Josh Shapiro said a state police helicopter was involved in crash at the Carlisle Airport Wednesday evening.
LancasterOnline · August 20, 2026
- Garrity calls for Shapiro to return $5.7M in data center-related campaign donations
Republican gubernatorial candidate Stacy Garrity on Friday called for Gov. Josh Shapiro to return $5.7 million in political contributions from what she described as “out-of-state data center interests.” Garrity’s call came three days after S…
TribLIVE · August 21, 2026 
From Pennsylvania to Ohio to Texas, the governors’ races are all coming down to data centersStacy Garrity accused Josh Shapiro of having “lit the fuse on the chaos we are seeing in community after community.”
Fortune · August 19, 2026- Trump visits Mack Trucks plant in battleground Pennsylvania district to tout economic agenda as midterms loom - Fox Business
Trump visits Mack Trucks plant in battleground Pennsylvania district to tout economic agenda as midterms loomFox Business Trump touts U.S. economy and oil prices in a midterm pitch in PennsylvaniaNBC News From peace talks to Pennsylvania: Trump shifts focus t…
Slashdot.org · June 24, 2026 - Trump-Endorsed Candidate Wins Republican Gubernatorial Primary [PA]
Pennsylvania Treasurer Stacy Garrity won the Republican primary for Governor of Pennsylvania. Garrity, who secured Trump’s endorsement in January, will face incumbent Democrat Gov. Josh Shapiro in the general election. “Both ran unopposed in Tuesday’s primary…
Freerepublic.com · May 20, 2026 - Trump-Endorsed Candidate Wins Republican Gubernatorial Primary [PA]
Pennsylvania Treasurer Stacy Garrity won the Republican primary for Governor of Pennsylvania. Garrity, who secured Trump’s endorsement in January, will face incumbent Democrat Gov. Josh Shapiro in the general election. “Both ran unopposed in Tuesday’s primary…
Freerepublic.com · May 20, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
9 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Pennsylvania Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Josh Shapiro (D), with roughly a 94% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+17.4.
What do the polls say in the Pennsylvania Governor race?
There are 9 polls of this race. The most recent, from National Public Affairs (2026-07-30), showed D+7.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+17.4.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Pennsylvania Governor race?
Josh Shapiro is the Democratic candidate; Stacy Garrity is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Pennsylvania Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Pennsylvania Governor forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Josh Shapiro's (D) lead has widened to 94%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Pennsylvania Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.