Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 11 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+22.5 — a 98% Democratic win.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
- The Fall of Josh Shapiro: Pennsylvania Governor Collapses on the Political Waterfront
Below is my column in Fox.com on the recent decision of Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro to join the ranks of Democrats calling for packing the Supreme Court. It is a disappointing moment for many of us who hoped that Shapiro could offer a moderate voice in…
Freerepublic.com · July 7, 2026 
Trump Goes to War With Smithsonian Museum for Teaching HistoryPresident Trump is once again attacking Smithsonian director Lonnie Bunch and the museum system, the latest development in his “war on wokeness.” “The Smithsonian Institution, and the National Museum of American History in particular, under its current leader…
The New Republic · July 6, 2026
CNN Presses Josh Shapiro on Whether He Supports Anti-ICE, Anti-Israel Dem Socialist Getting Elected to CongressPennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) didn't sound thrilled about the strong chance Darializa Avila Chevalier (D) will get elected to Congress later this year. The post CNN Presses Josh Shapiro on Whether He Supports Anti-ICE, Anti-Israel Dem Socialist Getting E…
Mediaite · July 6, 2026
World Cup attendance: The potential 2028ers“When I get into it, I’m into it,” says Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.
Biztoc.com · July 5, 2026
‘One of Its Worst Decisions’: Josh Shapiro Blames the Supreme Court for Trump CorruptionPennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro blamed the Supreme Court for President Donald Trump's whopping profits while in office, calling its 2024 ruling on presidential immunity "one of its worst decisions" during a Friday interview with MeidasTouch. The post ‘One of I…
Mediaite · July 3, 2026
- Trump visits Mack Trucks plant in battleground Pennsylvania district to tout economic agenda as midterms loom - Fox Business
Trump visits Mack Trucks plant in battleground Pennsylvania district to tout economic agenda as midterms loomFox Business Trump touts U.S. economy and oil prices in a midterm pitch in PennsylvaniaNBC News From peace talks to Pennsylvania: Trump shifts focus t…
Slashdot.org · June 24, 2026 - Trump-Endorsed Candidate Wins Republican Gubernatorial Primary [PA]
Pennsylvania Treasurer Stacy Garrity won the Republican primary for Governor of Pennsylvania. Garrity, who secured Trump’s endorsement in January, will face incumbent Democrat Gov. Josh Shapiro in the general election. “Both ran unopposed in Tuesday’s primary…
Freerepublic.com · May 20, 2026 - Trump-Endorsed Candidate Wins Republican Gubernatorial Primary [PA]
Pennsylvania Treasurer Stacy Garrity won the Republican primary for Governor of Pennsylvania. Garrity, who secured Trump’s endorsement in January, will face incumbent Democrat Gov. Josh Shapiro in the general election. “Both ran unopposed in Tuesday’s primary…
Freerepublic.com · May 20, 2026 
Shapiro vs Trump-backed Garrity set for high-stakes Pennsylvania governor showdownGov. Josh Shapiro and Republican state Treasurer Stacy Garrity cruise to nominations, setting up Pennsylvania's 2026 gubernatorial general election.
Fox News · May 20, 2026
Josh Shapiro and Stacy Garrity prepare to face off for governor of Pennsylvania this fallPennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and state Treasurer Stacy Garrity will face off this fall in a ticket-topping race for governor in the nation’s largest swing state
NBC News · May 20, 2026
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Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| PennLive[67][A] | 2026-06-25 | 644 | D+25.0 |
| RealClearPolitics[66] | 2026-06-25 | — | D+23.0 |
| Race to the WH[65] | 2026-06-25 | — | D+22.5 |
| Franklin & Marshall College[68] | 2026-06-14 | 546 | D+22.0 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2026-06-14 | 546 | D+22.0 |
| MAD Global Strategy | 2026-06-11 | 600 | D+17.0 |
| PennLive | 2026-05-24 | 683 | D+24.0 |
| Bravo Group | 2026-05-24 | 684 | D+24.0 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research | 2026-03-29 | 700 | D+22.0 |
| Franklin & Marshall College | 2026-03-01 | 834 | D+20.0 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2026-02-23 | 836 | D+18.0 |