Pennsylvania Governor
Josh Shapiro (D) is all but certain to win the 2026 Pennsylvania Governor race — about a 99% chance, winning by about 22 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 11 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 11 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+22.4 — a 100% Democratic win.
Latest news
Josh Shapiro refuses to commit to finishing term as governor — similar to another 2028 hopefulPennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro refused to commit to serving out a full term if he wins reelection.
New York Post · Yesterday
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro says he hopes Netanyahu loses Israel's electionShapiro, a Jewish Democrat widely seen as a 2028 presidential hopeful, sidestepped a question during gubernatorial debate about military aid to Israel. 'As governor, you don't make those decisions about shipping weaponry overseas to any country'
Haaretz · Yesterday
PA Primary Reform ‘Opens the Door’ to House Republican Changing Parties: ‘Told Us… He Would Do’Sherman noted this week that the recent move by Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) to open his state’s party primaries to unaffiliated voters “opens the door” for Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick The post PA Primary Reform ‘Opens the Door’ to House Republican Changing …
Mediaite · October 7, 2026
NY Declares Measles 'Emergency' as Neighboring PA Surpasses 1,000 Cases in Largest Outbreak in DecadesAs measles cases surge around the country—including in neighboring Pennsylvania, where the largest outbreak in decades is surging—New York declared a measles "emergency" on Monday.The statewide emergency declaration, announced by Democratic New York Gov. Kath…
Common Dreams · October 6, 2026
'It Has to Stop': Community Members Condemn ICE Arrests at Bus Stops After GOP Blocks Bill to Protect KidsSince Republicans in the US Senate this week blocked a bill to make school bus stops off-limits for US Immigration and Customs Enforcement, community members in Pennsylvania and Austin, Texas have expressed outrage by arrests made in front of children—in at l…
Common Dreams · October 2, 2026
Josh Shapiro Headed for Landslide Re-Election WinA new PennLive/Bravo Group poll in Pennsylvania finds Josh Shapiro (D) leading Stacy Garrity (R) in the governor’s race, 55% to 28%. Pennsylvania Governor’s Race Josh Shapiro (D) 55% Stacy Garrity (R) 28% PennLive/Bravo Group poll · likely voters
Politicalwire.com · October 1, 2026
Josh Shapiro Headed for Blowout in PennsylvaniaA new The Inquirer, the New York Times/Siena University poll in Pennsylvania finds Josh Shapiro (D) leading Stacy Garrity (R) in the governor’s race, 58% to 38%. Pennsylvania Governor’s Race Josh Shapiro (D) 58% Stacy Garrity (R) 38% The Inquirer, the New…
Politicalwire.com · September 24, 2026- Josh Shapiro Cruising to Re-Election in Pennsylvania
“Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, a moderate Democrat, is in the driver’s seat for re-election in a battleground state,” according to a New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University poll. “Mr. Shapiro leads Stacy Garrity, the Republican state treasu…
Politicalwire.com · August 25, 2026 
Garrity calls for Shapiro to return $5.7M in data center-related campaign donationsRepublican gubernatorial candidate Stacy Garrity on Friday called for Gov. Josh Shapiro to return $5.7 million in political contributions from what she described as “out-of-state data center interests.” Garrity’s call came three days after S…
TribLIVE · August 21, 2026
From Pennsylvania to Ohio to Texas, the governors’ races are all coming down to data centersStacy Garrity accused Josh Shapiro of having “lit the fuse on the chaos we are seeing in community after community.”
Fortune · August 19, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
11 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Pennsylvania Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Josh Shapiro (D), with roughly a 99% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+22.4.
What do the polls say in the Pennsylvania Governor race?
There are 11 polls of this race. The most recent, from FiftyPlusOne (2026-10-02), showed D+22.2. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+22.4.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Pennsylvania Governor race?
Josh Shapiro is the Democratic candidate; Stacy Garrity is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Pennsylvania Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Pennsylvania Governor forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Josh Shapiro's (D) lead has widened to 99%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Pennsylvania Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.