Pennsylvania 2026 elections

Everything on Pennsylvania's 2026 ballot and in its congressional delegation, in one place: the Governor race, 4 competitive U.S. House districts, 2 senators and 17 representatives — each with a daily-updated forecast or voting record.

Statewide races

Competitive House districts (4)

District forecasts are fundamentals-based — presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment — with district polling blended in where it exists. Click one to see why.

PA-8

Paige Cognetti (D) vs Rob Bresnahan (R) · pres lean R+8.0

Toss-up

52% · R+0.3

A fundamentals forecast blended with 2 district polls. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+8.0, held by Rob Bresnahan (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+7.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.8) shifts every district 3.0 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+0.3 — a 52% Republican win. Full race details →

PA-10

Janelle Stelson (D) vs Scott Perry (R) · pres lean R+5.0

Toss-up

56% · D+1.1

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+5.0, held by Scott Perry (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+1.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.8) shifts every district 3.0 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+1.1 — a 56% Republican win. Full race details →

PA-1

Bob Harvie (D) vs Brian Fitzpatrick (R) · pres lean D+0.3

Toss-up

64% · D+2.1

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+0.3, held by Brian Fitzpatrick (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+1.1; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.8) shifts every district 3.0 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+2.1 — a 64% Democratic win. Full race details →

PA-7

Bob Brooks (D) vs Ryan Mackenzie (R) · pres lean R+3.0

Lean D

68% · D+2.5

A fundamentals forecast blended with 2 district polls. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+3.0, held by Ryan Mackenzie (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.8) shifts every district 3.0 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+2.5 — a 68% Democratic win. Full race details →