Pennsylvania 2026 elections
Everything on Pennsylvania's 2026 ballot and in its congressional delegation, in one place: the Governor race, 3 competitive U.S. House districts, and its 2 senators and 17 representatives — each with a daily-updated forecast or voting record.
Statewide races
Competitive House districts (3)
District forecasts are fundamentals-based (no district polls yet) — presidential lean, incumbency, and the national environment. Click one to see why.
PA-10Scott Perry (R) · incumbent · pres lean R+4.8Toss-up53% · D+0.6
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+4.8, held by Scott Perry (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+4.3; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+0.6 — a 53% Democratic win.
PA-8Rob Bresnahan Jr. (R) · incumbent · pres lean R+6.8Toss-up59% · D+1.6
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+6.8, held by Rob Bresnahan Jr. (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+3.3; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+1.6 — a 59% Democratic win.
PA-7Ryan E. Mackenzie (R) · incumbent · pres lean R+2.0Lean D67% · D+3.0
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+2.0, held by Ryan E. Mackenzie (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+1.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+3.0 — a 67% Democratic win.