Pennsylvania 2026 elections

Everything on Pennsylvania's 2026 ballot and in its congressional delegation, in one place: the Governor race, 3 competitive U.S. House districts, 2 senators and 17 representatives — each with a daily-updated forecast or voting record.

Statewide races

Competitive House districts (3)

District forecasts are fundamentals-based (no district polls yet) — presidential lean, incumbency, and the national environment. Click one to see why.

PA-10

Janelle Stelson (D) vs Scott Perry (R) · pres lean R+4.8

Toss-up

60% · R+1.7

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+4.8, held by Scott Perry (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+3.3; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.3) shifts every district 1.6 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+1.7 — a 60% Republican win. Full race details →

PA-8

Paige Cognetti (D) vs Rob Bresnahan (R) · pres lean R+6.8

Lean R

72% · R+4.0

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+6.8, held by Rob Bresnahan Jr. (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+5.6; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.3) shifts every district 1.6 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+4.0 — a 72% Republican win. Full race details →

PA-7

Bob Brooks (D) vs Ryan Mackenzie (R) · pres lean R+2.0

Lean R

80% · R+5.7

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+2.0, held by Ryan E. Mackenzie (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+7.3; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.3) shifts every district 1.6 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+5.7 — a 80% Republican win. Full race details →