Actual result
D+10.1
Final polls said
D+4.8
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+10.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | D+9.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Los Angeles Times | D+5.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Policy Institute of California | D+3.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+2.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+2.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
Polls (12)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 1998-11-01 | 800 | D+10.0 | 0 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 1998-10-30 | 5735 | D+2.0 | 8 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-27 | 809 | D+2.0 | 8 |
| Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | 1998-10-24 | 678 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 1998-10-20 | 4531 | D+1.0 | 9 |
| Los Angeles Times | 1998-10-19 | 883 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-12 | 820 | R+2.0 | 12 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 1998-10-03 | 793 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | 1998-10-01 | 703 | R+4.0 | 14 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-09-15 | 800 | EVEN | 10 |
| Los Angeles Times | 1998-09-14 | 684 | R+5.0 | 15 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 1998-09-04 | 2000 | D+2.0 | 8 |