Actual result
D+4.1
Final polls said
D+6.3
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+2.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+1.0 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 3 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+15.0 | 10.9 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 1998-11-01 | 700 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 1998-10-30 | 1418 | D+15.0 | 11 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-27 | 827 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 1998-10-20 | 1163 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-12 | 836 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 1998-10-10 | 500 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-09-21 | 807 | R+10.0 | 14 |