North Carolina Senate
Roy Cooper (D) is favored to win the 2026 North Carolina Senate race — about a 81% chance, winning by about 8 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 21 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 21 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+8.3 — a 81% Democratic win.
Latest news
- North Carolina Senate race between Cooper, Whatley tightens: Poll
Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is maintaining his lead over former Republican National Committee (RNC) Chair Michael Whatley in the state’s Senate race, according to a new poll released Friday. A High Point University Poll found the Democratic cand…
Freerepublic.com · August 22, 2026 
Whatley Within Striking Distance of Defeating Roy Cooper in North CarolinaRepublican Michael Whatley is within striking distance of former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper in the race for North Carolina’s open U.S. Senate seat, according to a new High Point University poll released Friday. The race is for the seat currently held by R…
Biztoc.com · August 21, 2026
Exclusive — Michael Whatley: Democrat Roy Cooper Never Explained Letting Thousands of Criminals Out of JailNorth Carolina's Democrat gubernatorial candidate Roy Cooper has "never" offered an explanation for letting thousands of criminals out of jail during the coronavirus pandemic, Republican Senate candidate Michael Whatley said during an appearance on Breitbart …
Breitbart News · August 21, 2026
Video Shows Democrat Roy Cooper Lying to Reporters About Releasing 4,200 PrisonersNorth Carolina Democrat Senate candidate Roy Cooper lied to reporters when asked about his soft-on-crime record at a recent campaign appearance. The post Video Shows Democrat Roy Cooper Lying to Reporters About Releasing 4,200 Prisoners appeared first on Brei…
Breitbart News · August 20, 2026
Democrat Senate Candidate Roy Cooper's Pay-to-Play Healthcare Push Made Him RichNorth Carolina Democrat Senate candidate Roy Cooper benefited substantially from healthcare companies while serving eight years as the state's governor. Records show state-awarded contracts went to companies who made donations to entities connected to Cooper …
Breitbart News · August 20, 2026
- North Carolina Senate race between Cooper, Whatley tightens: Poll
Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is maintaining his lead over former Republican National Committee (RNC) Chair Michael Whatley in the state’s Senate race, according to a new poll released Friday. A High Point University Poll found the Democratic cand…
Freerepublic.com · August 22, 2026 - Whatley Within Striking Distance of Defeating Roy Cooper in North Carolina
Republican Michael Whatley is within striking distance of former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper in the race for North Carolina’s open U.S. Senate seat, according to a new High Point University poll released Friday. The race is for the seat currently held by R…
Biztoc.com · August 21, 2026 - Exclusive — Michael Whatley: Democrat Roy Cooper Never Explained Letting Thousands of Criminals Out of Jail
North Carolina's Democrat gubernatorial candidate Roy Cooper has "never" offered an explanation for letting thousands of criminals out of jail during the coronavirus pandemic, Republican Senate candidate Michael Whatley said during an appearance on Breitbart …
Breitbart News · August 21, 2026 
Dems Are Looking Good in North Carolina—or Are They?You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonDems are looking good in North Carolina—or are they?If Democrats want to take back…
The New Republic · August 19, 2026
Fox Hits Trump with Crushing Polls—and Wrecks Fox’s Own Pro-Trump SpinFox News has some very bad news for Fox News. You’ve probably noticed that Fox pumps out enormous amounts of propaganda designed to smear the Democratic Party as wildly extreme and irredeemably crazy. Leading Fox personalities routinely depict the party as ho…
The New Republic · August 14, 2026
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The polls behind it
21 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 North Carolina Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Roy Cooper (D), with roughly a 81% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+8.3.
What do the polls say in the North Carolina Senate race?
There are 21 polls of this race. The most recent, from Harper Polling (2026-08-10), showed D+12.5. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+8.3.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 North Carolina Senate race?
Roy Cooper is the Democratic candidate; Michael Whatley is the Republican.
When is the 2026 North Carolina Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 North Carolina Senate forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Roy Cooper's (D) lead has widened to 81%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the North Carolina Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.