VotePredictor
all races

North Carolina Senate

Roy Cooper (D) vs Michael Whatley (R)

Forecast — win probability
Roy Cooper (D)
79%
(R) Michael Whatley
21%
Lean D · model margin D+8.2

Why this forecast

This forecast is poll-driven: 15 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+8.2 — a 79% Democratic win.

Forecast over time

The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.

0255075100FebMarAprMayJunJul21% R79% D
Democrats 79% Republicans 21%

Latest news

Roy Cooper (D)
Michael Whatley (R)

Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.

Polls (15)

PollsterDatenPoll
The New York Times/Siena University2026-06-27601D+7.0
YouGov2026-06-10905D+14.0
Harper Polling2026-05-11600D+11.1
Change Research2026-05-08957D+7.0
Opinion Diagnostics2026-04-24830D+9.0
High Point University / YouGov2026-04-06703D+8.0
High Point University Survey Research Center/YouGov2026-04-06703D+8.0
Quantus Insights2026-04-01987D+5.0
Harper Polling2026-03-23600D+7.8
YouGov2026-03-18871D+14.0
Public Policy Polling2026-03-14556D+3.0
Nexus Strategies/Strategic Partners Solutions2026-03-09800D+18.0
Change Research2026-02-041069D+10.0
TIPP Insights2026-01-151512D+24.0
Change Research2026-01-071105D+5.0