Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 15 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+8.2 — a 79% Democratic win.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
Roy Cooper Vetoed Bills Protecting Women’s Sports, Parental Rights, and Minors from Sex-Change ProceduresSunday marked three years since former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, now a Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, vetoed legislation barring male athletes from girls’ sports, strengthening parents’ authority over their children’s education, and prohibiting g…
Breitbart News · July 8, 2026- GOP holds edge in Senate swing-state races: New York Times polls
Democrats are competitive in six key Senate battlegrounds, but Republicans still hold the edge in the fight for the upper chamber, according to new polling from The New York Times and Siena. The New York Times/Siena Polls found Democrats leading the Senate ra…
Freerepublic.com · July 4, 2026
Senate GOP majority in jeopardy as poll finds Dems 'pulled within striking distance'President Donald Trump has helped clear a path for Democrats to retake control of the U.S. Senate, according to fresh polling data.A new New York Times/Siena poll across six Senate battleground states found an opening for Democrats to flip enough seats to reg…
Raw Story · July 1, 2026
Why This Year Could Be a Democratic WaveYou can watch this episode of Right Now With Perry Bacon above or by following this show on YouTube or Substack. You can read a transcript here. The swing districts in the midterms this year aren’t just suburban areas with lots of white college graduates and …
The New Republic · June 24, 2026
Roy Cooper’s Chances of Beating Michael Whatley in North Carolina—PollsFormer Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, held a double-digit lead over ex-Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley in the latest poll of North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race, released on Tuesday. Democrats view the North Carolina seat held by retiring …
Biztoc.com · June 23, 2026
- GOP holds edge in Senate swing-state races: New York Times polls
Democrats are competitive in six key Senate battlegrounds, but Republicans still hold the edge in the fight for the upper chamber, according to new polling from The New York Times and Siena. The New York Times/Siena Polls found Democrats leading the Senate ra…
Freerepublic.com · July 4, 2026
Senate GOP majority in jeopardy as poll finds Dems 'pulled within striking distance'President Donald Trump has helped clear a path for Democrats to retake control of the U.S. Senate, according to fresh polling data.A new New York Times/Siena poll across six Senate battleground states found an opening for Democrats to flip enough seats to reg…
Raw Story · July 1, 2026
Michael Whatley: Michigan? Huh, not familiar with that term. You say that's a state? Yeah, sorry, just not ringing any bells. I only know North Carolina. North Carolina personified, that's me [Dumbass]Michael Whatley: Michigan? Huh, not familiar with that term. You say that's a state? Yeah, sorry, just not ringing any bells. I only know North Carolina. North Carolina personified, that's me
Fark.com · June 25, 2026
Michael Whatley’s Michigan roots largely disappear from his bio as he runs for Senate in North CarolinaFormer RNC Chair Michael Whatley moved to North Carolina when he was in high school. He frequently says he is a “son” of the state and “grew up” there.
NBC News · June 25, 2026
Report: $47.2M in Fraudulent Unemployment Payments Occurred Under Roy Cooper’s Watch, Including to Illegal AliensA North Carolina State Auditor report found tens of millions of dollars in fraudulent unemployment benefit payments were made through North Carolina’s unemployment system during former Gov. Roy Cooper’s (D) administration and in the months after he left offic…
Breitbart News · June 24, 2026
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Polls (15)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University | 2026-06-27 | 601 | D+7.0 |
| YouGov | 2026-06-10 | 905 | D+14.0 |
| Harper Polling | 2026-05-11 | 600 | D+11.1 |
| Change Research | 2026-05-08 | 957 | D+7.0 |
| Opinion Diagnostics | 2026-04-24 | 830 | D+9.0 |
| High Point University / YouGov | 2026-04-06 | 703 | D+8.0 |
| High Point University Survey Research Center/YouGov | 2026-04-06 | 703 | D+8.0 |
| Quantus Insights | 2026-04-01 | 987 | D+5.0 |
| Harper Polling | 2026-03-23 | 600 | D+7.8 |
| YouGov | 2026-03-18 | 871 | D+14.0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-03-14 | 556 | D+3.0 |
| Nexus Strategies/Strategic Partners Solutions | 2026-03-09 | 800 | D+18.0 |
| Change Research | 2026-02-04 | 1069 | D+10.0 |
| TIPP Insights | 2026-01-15 | 1512 | D+24.0 |
| Change Research | 2026-01-07 | 1105 | D+5.0 |