North Carolina 2026 elections
Everything on North Carolina's 2026 ballot and in its congressional delegation, in one place: the Senate race, 5 competitive U.S. House districts, and its 2 senators and 14 representatives — each with a daily-updated forecast or voting record.
Statewide races
Competitive House districts (5)
District forecasts are fundamentals-based (no district polls yet) — presidential lean, incumbency, and the national environment. Click one to see why.
NC-11new mapnew 2026 map district · pres lean R+10.0Toss-up62% · R+2.1
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+10.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+7.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+2.1 — a 62% Republican win.
NC-1new mapnew 2026 map district · pres lean R+12.0Lean R81% · R+6.0
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+12.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+10.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.0 — a 81% Republican win.
NC-14new mapnew 2026 map district · pres lean R+15.0Likely R86% · R+7.4
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+15.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+12.3; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+7.4 — a 86% Republican win.
NC-7new mapnew 2026 map district · pres lean R+14.0Likely R88% · R+8.1
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+14.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+13.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+8.1 — a 88% Republican win.
NC-3new mapnew 2026 map district · pres lean R+14.0Likely R88% · R+8.1
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+14.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+13.0; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+8.1 — a 88% Republican win.