North Carolina 2026 elections

Everything on North Carolina's 2026 ballot and in its congressional delegation, in one place: the Senate race, 3 competitive U.S. House districts, 2 senators and 14 representatives — each with a daily-updated forecast or voting record.

Statewide races

Competitive House districts (3)

District forecasts are fundamentals-based — presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment — with district polling blended in where it exists. Click one to see why.

NC-1new map

Don Davis (D) vs Laurie Buckhout (R) · pres lean R+11.6

Toss-up

63% · D+2.0

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.6, held by Don Davis (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+6.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.8) shifts every district 3.0 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+2.0 — a 63% Democratic win. Full race details →

NC-11new map

Jamie Ager (D) vs Jennifer Balkcom (R) · pres lean R+9.6

Lean D

68% · D+3.0

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+9.6, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+6.5; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.8) shifts every district 3.0 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+3.0 — a 68% Democratic win. Full race details →

NC-3new map

Raymond Smith Jr. (D) vs Greg Murphy (R) · pres lean R+13.8

Likely R

90% · R+7.6

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+13.8, held by Greg Murphy (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+10.6; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.8) shifts every district 3.0 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+7.6 — a 90% Republican win. Full race details →