North Carolina 2026 elections

Everything on North Carolina's 2026 ballot and in its congressional delegation, in one place: the Senate race, 2 competitive U.S. House districts, 2 senators and 14 representatives — each with a daily-updated forecast or voting record.

Statewide races

Competitive House districts (2)

District forecasts are fundamentals-based (no district polls yet) — presidential lean, incumbency, and the national environment. Click one to see why.

NC-1new map

Don Davis (D) vs Laurie Buckhout (R) · pres lean R+11.6

Toss-up

51% · R+0.1

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.6, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+1.7; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.3) shifts every district 1.6 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+0.1 — a 51% Republican win. Full race details →

NC-11new map

Jamie Ager (D) vs Jennifer Balkcom (R) · pres lean R+9.6

Lean R

73% · R+4.3

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+9.6, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+5.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.3) shifts every district 1.6 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+4.3 — a 73% Republican win. Full race details →