Actual result
D+14.2
Final polls said
D+2.3
17 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quinnipiac University | D+8.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Manhattanville College | D+8.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+5.0 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+4.0 | 10.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Blum & Weprin Associates | D+4.0 | 10.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+4.0 | 10.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+3.0 | 11.2 | ✓ |
| 8 | Marist College | D+3.0 | 11.2 | ✓ |
| 9 | CBS News/The New York Times | EVEN | 14.2 | ✗ |
| 10 | Zogby Analytics | R+0.8 | 15.0 | ✗ |
Polls (27)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 1998-10-31 | 1196 | R+0.8 | 15 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 1998-10-30 | 2243 | D+4.0 | 10 |
| Quinnipiac University | 1998-10-29 | 584 | D+8.0 | 6 |
| Zogby Analytics | 1998-10-28 | 700 | D+4.0 | 10 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-27 | 808 | D+3.0 | 11 |
| Blum & Weprin Associates | 1998-10-27 | 662 | D+4.0 | 10 |
| Zogby Analytics | 1998-10-26 | 700 | D+6.0 | 8 |
| Marist College | 1998-10-26 | 351 | D+3.0 | 11 |
| Manhattanville College | 1998-10-25 | 601 | D+8.0 | 6 |
| Zogby Analytics | 1998-10-24 | 700 | D+4.0 | 10 |
| CBS News/The New York Times | 1998-10-23 | 1235 | EVEN | 14 |
| Quinnipiac University | 1998-10-22 | 547 | D+4.0 | 10 |
| Zogby Analytics | 1998-10-22 | 700 | R+2.0 | 16 |
| SurveyUSA | 1998-10-21 | 500 | D+5.0 | 9 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 1998-10-20 | 1792 | R+2.0 | 16 |
| Zogby Analytics | 1998-10-20 | 703 | R+4.0 | 18 |
| Zogby Analytics | 1998-10-15 | 706 | R+5.0 | 19 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 1998-10-13 | 902 | D+4.0 | 10 |
| Blum & Weprin Associates | 1998-10-12 | 364 | R+8.0 | 22 |
| Quinnipiac University | 1998-10-09 | 583 | D+1.0 | 13 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-05 | 803 | D+1.0 | 13 |
| Manhattanville College | 1998-10-05 | 600 | D+6.0 | 8 |
| CBS News/The New York Times | 1998-10-03 | 1006 | D+3.0 | 11 |
| Marist College | 1998-09-23 | 679 | D+5.0 | 9 |
| Blum & Weprin Associates | 1998-09-22 | 679 | R+2.0 | 16 |
| Quinnipiac University | 1998-09-19 | 574 | D+4.0 | 10 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-09-07 | 819 | R+12.0 | 26 |