Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 18 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+14.9 — a 91% Democratic win.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
What HIV prevention and Fire Island's beach restoration have in commonOpinion: In two impactful moves, New York Governor Kathy Hochul has made a big investment in protecting the LGBTQ+ community's future, praises MISTR CEO Tristan Schukraft.
Advocate.com · Yesterday
Mamdani, Hochul’s $800M plan to speed up NYC buses means more Big Brother camera tickets: ‘The real reason’Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Gov. Kathy Hochul unveiled an $800 million plan Wednesday they said will shorten city bus rides by adding special lanes — and more Big Brother-style traffic cameras to squeeze drivers. The Democrats unveiled the plan at a news confere…
New York Post · July 8, 2026
Trump Denies Disaster Aid for Four States That Didn’t Vote for HimPresident Trump rejected FEMA disaster aid requests from four blue states last Friday, after accepting the aid requests of six red states just two days before, according to Politico. This continues his blatant trend of prioritizing petty political beef over s…
The New Republic · July 8, 2026
Blistering Bruce Blakeman ad features AI-Hochul being ‘truthful’ about her New York: ‘Want some crack?’Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman has released a blistering new ad featuring an AI-generated Gov. Kathy Hochul, which he says offers a view of what a "truthful" ad for the incumbent might look like.
New York Post · July 8, 2026- Taxpayer-Funded Betrayal: Hochul Bribes Sheriffs to Shield Criminal Illegals from ICE Raids
New York Governor Kathy Hochul (D) is putting sanctuary priorities ahead of public safety, this time by dangling technology upgrade grants in front of local police agencies—but only if they agree to limit cooperation with federal immigration authorities. Hoch…
Freerepublic.com · July 8, 2026
Nassau County will rebuild 9/11 memorial for 25th anniversary — and fix engraved typoNassau County officials broke ground on a new $350,000 Sept. 11 memorial in East Meadow — which will replace an aging monument that has a engraved typo in its plaque. County Executive Bruce Blakeman joined with fire officials and other elected officials at th…
New York Post · Yesterday
Blistering Bruce Blakeman ad features AI-Hochul being ‘truthful’ about her New York: ‘Want some crack?’Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman has released a blistering new ad featuring an AI-generated Gov. Kathy Hochul, which he says offers a view of what a "truthful" ad for the incumbent might look like.
New York Post · July 8, 2026
Hochul says Stefanik would've been tougher GOP opponent than Blakeman in surprising swipe at rivalBruce Blakeman compared Kathy Hochul to Cruella de Vil after the New York governor suggested Elise Stefanik would have been a tougher opponent.
Fox News · July 7, 2026
GOP governor hopeful Bruce Blakeman blasts ‘dangerous’ Mamdani, Hochul in pitch to moderatesNassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman said New Yorkers need to vote for him for governor if they want to stop the red scare -- the march of socialism -- infecting New York's body politic under Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul's watch.
New York Post · June 28, 2026
NY governor hopeful vows showdown with Mamdani over socialist agenda: ‘I will stop him’Bruce Blakeman vows to stop Zohran Mamdani's agenda, saying government-run grocery stores and tax hikes would damage New York's entire economy.
Fox News · June 27, 2026
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Polls (18)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Race to the WH[151] | 2026-07-02 | — | D+11.2 |
| co/efficient | 2026-07-02 | 1085 | D+6.0 |
| Siena College | 2026-06-26 | 800 | D+25.0 |
| RealClearPolitics[152] | 2026-06-23 | — | D+18.5 |
| Siena College | 2026-06-23 | 1120 | D+20.0 |
| Siena University | 2026-06-23 | 1120 | D+20.0 |
| Pollfinity | 2026-06-14 | 229 | D+10.0 |
| Siena University | 2026-04-30 | 806 | D+16.0 |
| Siena College | 2026-04-30 | 806 | D+16.0 |
| Siena College | 2026-03-26 | 804 | D+13.0 |
| Echelon Insights/Tusk Strategies | 2026-03-26 | 500 | D+15.0 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2026-03-08 | 800 | D+9.0 |
| Siena College | 2026-02-26 | 805 | D+20.0 |
| Marist University[161] | 2026-02-19 | 1442 | D+17.0 |
| Marist College | 2026-02-19 | 1442 | D+17.0 |
| MAD Global Strategy | 2026-02-04 | 600 | D+13.0 |
| Siena College | 2026-01-28 | 802 | D+26.0 |
| John Zogby Strategies | 2026-01-08 | 844 | D+14.0 |