New York Governor
Kathy Hochul (D) is all but certain to win the 2026 New York Governor race — about a 99% chance, winning by about 13 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 9 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 9 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+13.3 — a 100% Democratic win.
Latest news
Mamdani accuses Blakeman of 'bigotry and racism' in breakout debate that mayor didn't watchNew York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani admitted he didn't watch Tuesday's gubernatorial debate between Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul and Republican Bruce Blakeman.
Fox News · Yesterday
Hochul deflects when pressed on ties to 'anti-Christian' Mamdani in fiery debate moment: 'Shame on you'New York Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul was pressed on her endorsement of Mayor Zohran Mamdani after Bruce Blakeman called him an antisemite.
Fox News · Yesterday
Poll Shows Huge Support for Apartments Near Transit As Hochul, Blakeman Debate HousingA new poll finds overwhelming support for Gov. Kathy Hochul to pursue transit-oriented development opposed by Republican Bruce Blakeman.
Streetsblog.org · Yesterday
New York governor debate heats up as Blakeman, Hochul spar over Trump, sanctuary status, ICE shootingThe New York gubernatorial race heated up Tuesday as Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman clashed on the debate stage.
Fox News · Yesterday- Bruce Blakeman Leaves Kathy Hochul 'Short Circuiting' During Contentious NY Gov's Debate
On Tuesday, incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) faced her Republican challenger, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, in the only debate of the New York governor's race. Spectrum News hosted the event for what many consider a toss-up race. Gov. Kathy Hochul an…
Freerepublic.com · Yesterday
- Mamdani accuses Blakeman of 'bigotry and racism' in breakout debate that mayor didn't watch
New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani admitted he didn't watch Tuesday's gubernatorial debate between Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul and Republican Bruce Blakeman.
Fox News · Yesterday - Hochul deflects when pressed on ties to 'anti-Christian' Mamdani in fiery debate moment: 'Shame on you'
New York Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul was pressed on her endorsement of Mayor Zohran Mamdani after Bruce Blakeman called him an antisemite.
Fox News · Yesterday - Poll Shows Huge Support for Apartments Near Transit As Hochul, Blakeman Debate Housing
A new poll finds overwhelming support for Gov. Kathy Hochul to pursue transit-oriented development opposed by Republican Bruce Blakeman.
Streetsblog.org · Yesterday 
Harry Styles challenged by GOP gov candidate to put migrant shot by ICE ‘on his tour bus’ after MSG tributeNew York GOP gubernatorial nominee Bruce Blakeman ripped Harry Styles as "out-of-touch" after the singer honored a migrant shot by ICE during a recent performance at MSG.
Fox News · Yesterday- New York governor debate heats up as Blakeman, Hochul spar over Trump, sanctuary status, ICE shooting
The New York gubernatorial race heated up Tuesday as Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman clashed on the debate stage.
Fox News · Yesterday
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
9 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 New York Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Kathy Hochul (D), with roughly a 99% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+13.3.
What do the polls say in the New York Governor race?
There are 9 polls of this race. The most recent, from Emerson College (2026-10-05), showed D+12.7. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+13.3.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 New York Governor race?
Kathy Hochul is the Democratic candidate; Bruce Blakeman is the Republican.
When is the 2026 New York Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 New York Governor forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Kathy Hochul's (D) lead has widened to 99%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the New York Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.