New York Governor
Kathy Hochul (D) is the clear favorite to win the 2026 New York Governor race — about a 90% chance, winning by about 14 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 18 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 18 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+13.8 — a 90% Democratic win.
Latest news
Why Democrats Must Embrace a “Mom Populist” Education AgendaPease Elementary in downtown Austin, Texas, has sat empty since 2020. Formerly the oldest continuously operating school in Texas, Pease was shuttered by the Austin Independent School District to save money. On a steamy day this summer, the hulking structure p…
The New Republic · Today- NY Knicks Owner Turns Against Kathy Hochul, Gives Big to Republican Opponent
New York Democrats have driven one of the state’s major donors into the arms of Republicans... billionaire James Dolan, owner of the NBA champion New York Knicks, has spearheaded an effort to pour millions of dollars into Republican Bruce Blakeman’s gubernato…
Freerepublic.com · August 22, 2026 
Kathy Hochul's business-friendly data center planNew York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) is positioning herself as a leader of the Democratic search for a data center position that isn't explicitly anti-business. Why it matters: Hochul says her data center platform isn't being designed with politics in mind. But as…
Biztoc.com · August 21, 2026
If Kathy Hochul really cares about affordability, she’ll do thisThe Constitution Pipeline could save New Yorkers nearly $5 billion over 15 years and create 1,000 new jobs in New York and generate millions in new state tax revenue.
New York Post · August 21, 2026- Hochul to Mamdani: 'Focus on New York, not Israel'
Kathy Hochul is urging New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani to devote greater attention to governing the city and less to Israel, according to an interview with The New York Times published Thursday. Hochul was asked about a video Mamdani released last month in…
Freerepublic.com · August 21, 2026
The 5 Outrageous Things Trump’s New Attorney General Has Already DoneIn just his first week in office, Todd Blanche has inflicted more damage on the norms and traditions of the Department of Justice than any attorney general in its history. I don’t say this casually, and I’m not ignoring the competition. John Mitchell ran Rich…
The New Republic · August 21, 2026
Hochul launches multi-million dollar ad blitz tying Blakeman to TrumpKathy Hochul's re-election campaign launched a multi-million TV ad blitz linking Republican rival Bruce Blakeman to President Trump, a week after an independent poll said the race is tightening in blue New York.
New York Post · August 20, 2026- Prominent Dem donor fundraising for NY GOP governor candidate Bruce Blakeman: ‘Talk of the Hamptons’
She’s breaking for Bruce. A dyed-in-the-wool Democratic donor who previously contributed to Gov. Kathy Hochul’s campaign is raising funds for her Republican gubernatorial opponent Bruce Blakeman, The Post has learned. Bonnie Englebardt Lautenberg, a professio…
Freerepublic.com · August 17, 2026 
Grandpa Endorses 'Ma'am' For New York Attorney GeneralTrump couldn't remember the name of the woman he just endorsed for Attorney General in New York during a rally where he used members of law enforcement as props while endorsing Bruce Blakeman for Governor: A native New Yorker, Trump was in Garden City ostensi…
Crooksandliars.com · August 16, 2026
Bolshevik-buster Bruce Blakeman battles socialism with ‘Protect the New York Dream’ initiativeRepublican gubernatorial hopeful Bruce Blakeman is amping up his fight to rid the Empire State of socialism by unveiling new platforms aimed at protecting the “New York Dream.”
New York Post · August 15, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
18 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 New York Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Kathy Hochul (D), with roughly a 90% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+13.8.
What do the polls say in the New York Governor race?
There are 18 polls of this race. The most recent, from Siena University (2026-08-06), showed D+10.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+13.8.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 New York Governor race?
Kathy Hochul is the Democratic candidate; Bruce Blakeman is the Republican.
When is the 2026 New York Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 New York Governor forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Kathy Hochul's (D) lead has widened to 90%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the New York Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.