New York Governor
Kathy Hochul (D) is all but certain to win the 2026 New York Governor race — about a 99% chance, winning by about 14 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 7 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 7 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+13.9 — a 100% Democratic win.
Latest news
Hochul urges immediate answers on ICE-involved shootingNew York Governor Kathy Hochul called on federal authorities to provide immediate answers on the ICE-involved shooting that injured one person in the city."There is still much we don't know about what...
Biztoc.com · Today
Blakeman has big lead over Hochul among independent voters — but Dem ahead overall: pollRepublican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman leads incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul by 21 percentage points among independent voters — even as she holds a healthy double-digit lead in the deeply blue Empire State, a new poll found. Hochul leads Blakeman b…
New York Post · Yesterday- New York state stockpiled abortion pills. Now they're all expired.
Gov. Kathy Hochul was one of a handful of Democratic governors to stockpile pills used in medication abortion amid fears the U.S. Supreme Court could restrict access three years ago. But a feared shortage of the drug never materialized. Now, 150,000 pills in …
Freerepublic.com · Yesterday 
Cornell rape accuser was told police were still investigating. They weren't, her lawyer says.ITHACA, N.Y. (AP) — The woman accusing several men of raping her at a Cornell University fraternity party was “misled” about the status of the criminal investigation in the weeks after she went to police, her lawyer said Wednesday. Even as she took her alleg…
Yahoo Entertainment · October 7, 2026
Debra Messing sparks outrage after endorsing Trump-backed Republican for New York Governor... after decades as a devout DemocratThe 58-year-old Will & Grace star met up with a member of the GOP, Bruce Blakeman, to reveal public support for him just weeks before his showdown with democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul.
Dailymail.com · October 7, 2026
Hochul brushes off outrage over why migrants keep getting released, re-arrested under NY’s bail, sanctuary lawsHochul defended attacks from her GOP foe, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, and battleground Hudson Valley Rep. Mike Lawler Tuesday, calling on her to reverse the new sanctuary protections she signed into law earlier this year to push back on the Trump …
New York Post · Yesterday- Blakeman has big lead over Hochul among independent voters — but Dem ahead overall: poll
Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman leads incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul by 21 percentage points among independent voters — even as she holds a healthy double-digit lead in the deeply blue Empire State, a new poll found. Hochul leads Blakeman b…
New York Post · Yesterday 
Blakeman urges Jewish New Yorkers to ‘get into this fight’ ahead of November electionRepublican candidate for governor Bruce Blakeman made an emotional appeal to Jews, urging them to vote for him as the only choice to "stop" Israel-bashing New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani.
New York Post · Yesterday- Debra Messing sparks outrage after endorsing Trump-backed Republican for New York Governor... after decades as a devout Democrat
The 58-year-old Will & Grace star met up with a member of the GOP, Bruce Blakeman, to reveal public support for him just weeks before his showdown with democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul.
Dailymail.com · October 7, 2026 - Bruce Blakeman vows to end NY sanctuary policies as Mike Lawler drops F-bombs in attack on Gov. Kathy Hochul
GOP gubernatorial hopeful Bruce Blakeman vowed Tuesday to end New York’s sanctuary state policies on his first day in office — as Rep. Mike Lawler unleashed a profanity-laced attack on Gov. Kathy Hochul. The Republicans gathered in Chappaqua alongside the fam…
Freerepublic.com · October 7, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
7 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 New York Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Kathy Hochul (D), with roughly a 99% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+13.9.
What do the polls say in the New York Governor race?
There are 7 polls of this race. The most recent, from Emerson College (2026-10-05), showed D+12.7. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+13.9.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 New York Governor race?
Kathy Hochul is the Democratic candidate; Bruce Blakeman is the Republican.
When is the 2026 New York Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 New York Governor forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Kathy Hochul's (D) lead has widened to 99%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the New York Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.