VotePredictor
all races

New York Governor

Kathy Hochul (D) vs Bruce Blakeman (R)

Forecast — win probability
Kathy Hochul (D)
91%
(R) Bruce Blakeman
9%
Likely D · model margin D+14.9

Why this forecast

This forecast is poll-driven: 18 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+14.9 — a 91% Democratic win.

Forecast over time

The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.

0255075100FebMarAprMayJunJul9% R91% D
Democrats 91% Republicans 9%

Latest news

Kathy Hochul (D)
Bruce Blakeman (R)

Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.

Polls (18)

PollsterDatenPoll
Race to the WH[151]2026-07-02D+11.2
co/efficient2026-07-021085D+6.0
Siena College2026-06-26800D+25.0
RealClearPolitics[152]2026-06-23D+18.5
Siena College2026-06-231120D+20.0
Siena University2026-06-231120D+20.0
Pollfinity2026-06-14229D+10.0
Siena University2026-04-30806D+16.0
Siena College2026-04-30806D+16.0
Siena College2026-03-26804D+13.0
Echelon Insights/Tusk Strategies2026-03-26500D+15.0
McLaughlin & Associates2026-03-08800D+9.0
Siena College2026-02-26805D+20.0
Marist University[161]2026-02-191442D+17.0
Marist College2026-02-191442D+17.0
MAD Global Strategy2026-02-04600D+13.0
Siena College2026-01-28802D+26.0
John Zogby Strategies2026-01-08844D+14.0