Actual result
R+12.9
Final polls said
R+18.9
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+18.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Harris Insights & Analytics | R+19.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Gordon S. Black Corp. | R+23.0 | 10.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Columbus Dispatch | R+2.0 | 10.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | R+24.0 | 11.1 | ✓ |
Polls (14)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 1998-10-30 | 2149 | R+19.0 | 6 |
| Columbus Dispatch | 1998-10-27 | 800 | R+2.0 | 11 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-26 | 815 | R+18.0 | 5 |
| University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | 1998-10-26 | 1196 | R+24.0 | 11 |
| University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | 1998-10-24 | 733 | R+28.0 | 15 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 1998-10-20 | 1793 | R+18.0 | 5 |
| Gordon S. Black Corp. | 1998-10-18 | 1012 | R+23.0 | 10 |
| University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | 1998-10-13 | 540 | R+28.0 | 15 |
| University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | 1998-10-04 | 405 | R+23.0 | 10 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-04 | 805 | R+19.0 | 6 |
| Columbus Dispatch | 1998-09-28 | 2436 | R+14.0 | 1 |
| University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | 1998-09-14 | 521 | R+31.0 | 18 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-09-13 | 817 | R+28.0 | 15 |
| Gordon S. Black Corp. | 1998-09-12 | 1005 | R+17.0 | 4 |