Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 9 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+2.0 — a 58% Republican win.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
OHIO CONFERENCE OF TEAMSTERS ANNOUNCE 2026 CONGRESSIONAL ENDORSEMENTSUnion Supports Sherrod Brown, Bipartisan House Members Who Voted for FLCA AKRON, Ohio, July 10, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Today, the Ohio Conference of Teamsters announced its endorsements in Ohio's 2026 congressional races, backing Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) for the …
PRNewswire · Today
GOP ex-gov bursts out laughing on MS NOW at Trump's 'way out there' insult for DemocratsPresident Donald Trump has a new strategy to protect the GOP in the midterms, where he is betting it all on attacking Democrats by painting them as communists — and former Gov. John Kasich (R-OH), in conversation with MS NOW's Katy Tur, found it so weak as to…
Raw Story · July 8, 2026
What SCOTUS’s Campaign Finance Ruling Means for Democrats“This is Citizens United 2.0,” Representative Greg Casar said Tuesday about the Supreme Court’s ruling allowing political party campaign committees to coordinate directly with campaigns without a cap on spending. Republicans praised the decision, while Democr…
The New Republic · July 1, 2026
Sherrod Brown: Supreme Court’s Haitian TPS Ruling Is ‘Wrong,’ ‘Devastating’Former Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat running for U.S. Senate in Ohio against Republican Sen. Jon Husted, criticized the Supreme Court after it allowed President Donald Trump’s administration to move forward with ending Temporary Protected Status for Haitians…
Breitbart News · June 26, 2026
Sherrod Brown Took Nearly $4.9M from Wall Street-Affiliated and Billionaire Donors While Railing Against ThemFormer Sen. Sherrod Brown, who is running for U.S. Senate in 2026 against Republican Sen. Jon Husted, has spent decades casting himself as a blue-collar populist, but donor data reviewed by Breitbart News shows he has taken at least $4,887,980 from donors aff…
Breitbart News · June 26, 2026
'Essential': Senate prepares bipartisan campaign to defy TrumpA bipartisan group of senators will launch Thursday a new effort to force President Donald Trump to restore a popular and critical program his administration cut, according to a new report.Sens. Adam Schiff (D-CA), Jon Husted and Bernie Moreno (R-OH), and And…
Raw Story · Yesterday
Senators want to restore manufacturing program cut by TrumpSenators plan to introduce a bipartisan bill on Thursday that would force the Trump administration to restore a Commerce Department program that helps hundreds of thousands of US manufacturing firms thrive. The legislation from Sens. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., Jo…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
American Tributes – Jon Husted: In America, You Can Start in Foster Care and End Up in the SenateHusted hailed the United States as the land of opportunity, reflecting on his own journey from growing up in foster care to serving in the U.S. Senate. The post American Tributes – Jon Husted: In America, You Can Start in Foster Care and End Up in the Senate…
Breitbart News · July 2, 2026- Sherrod Brown: Supreme Court’s Haitian TPS Ruling Is ‘Wrong,’ ‘Devastating’
Former Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat running for U.S. Senate in Ohio against Republican Sen. Jon Husted, criticized the Supreme Court after it allowed President Donald Trump’s administration to move forward with ending Temporary Protected Status for Haitians…
Breitbart News · June 26, 2026 - Sherrod Brown Took Nearly $4.9M from Wall Street-Affiliated and Billionaire Donors While Railing Against Them
Former Sen. Sherrod Brown, who is running for U.S. Senate in 2026 against Republican Sen. Jon Husted, has spent decades casting himself as a blue-collar populist, but donor data reviewed by Breitbart News shows he has taken at least $4,887,980 from donors aff…
Breitbart News · June 26, 2026
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Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University | 2026-06-28 | 601 | R+3.0 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | 2026-06-16 | 800 | D+3.0 |
| Tulchin Research | 2026-06-04 | 600 | D+4.0 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2026-06-01 | 1015 | D+8.0 |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | 2026-04-14 | 1000 | R+3.0 |
| Echelon Insights | 2026-04-09 | — | R+6.0 |
| Quantus Insights | 2026-03-14 | 925 | R+2.0 |
| OnMessage | 2026-03-08 | 600 | D+2.0 |
| EMC Research | 2026-02-22 | 1343 | D+4.0 |