Ohio Senate
Sherrod Brown (D) is favored to win the 2026 Ohio Senate race — about a 78% chance, winning by about 3 points in the projection, after the lead recently flipped. Updated daily from 17 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 17 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+2.9 — a 78% Democratic win.
Latest news
'Complete lie': Republicans' latest attack ads torn to shreds by fact-checkerA CNN fact-check of GOP ads in competitive Senate races across four states found that attacks accusing Democrats of supporting gender surgeries for minors rely on misleading claims.In Ohio, Senate Leadership Fund spots targeting Sherrod Brown feature Soren Al…
Raw Story · Yesterday
Risk Facing Sherrod Brown’s Youth Vote StrategySherrod Brown is courting young Ohioans in the Buckeye State’s U.S. Senate race as polls give the Democrat commanding age-group leads but identify weak voting enthusiasm as a potential vulnerability. Brown holds a narrow statewide advantage over Republican Se…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
Are Republicans About To Pull Out Of Ohio?It's hard to tell how much credence to give this, but the theory is that Ohio is too expensive and both Ramaswamy for Governor and Husted for Senate are underperforming expectations. The tens of millions the GOP are sinking into Ohio every week could be bette…
Crooksandliars.com · Yesterday
Sherrod Brown Leads in Ohio Senate RaceA new CNN poll in Ohio finds Sherrod Brown (D) leading Jon Husted (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 49% to 43%. Ohio Senate Race Sherrod Brown (D) 49% Jon Husted (R) 43% CNN poll · likely voters · ±4.5% The same poll in Ohio finds Amy Acton (D) leading Vivek R…
Politicalwire.com · Yesterday
Trump? Diesel? ICE? Corruption? All of Those. But Mostly—Data Centers.In short order, America’s data centers have come to stand in for a broad range of apocalyptic threats, from the climate crisis to the surveillance state to Trump’s kleptocracy.Data centers are an excellent symbol for the Halloween season—sinister in every way…
The New Republic · Yesterday
- Risk Facing Sherrod Brown’s Youth Vote Strategy
Sherrod Brown is courting young Ohioans in the Buckeye State’s U.S. Senate race as polls give the Democrat commanding age-group leads but identify weak voting enthusiasm as a potential vulnerability. Brown holds a narrow statewide advantage over Republican Se…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday - Are Republicans About To Pull Out Of Ohio?
It's hard to tell how much credence to give this, but the theory is that Ohio is too expensive and both Ramaswamy for Governor and Husted for Senate are underperforming expectations. The tens of millions the GOP are sinking into Ohio every week could be bette…
Crooksandliars.com · Yesterday - Sherrod Brown Leads in Ohio Senate Race
A new CNN poll in Ohio finds Sherrod Brown (D) leading Jon Husted (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 49% to 43%. Ohio Senate Race Sherrod Brown (D) 49% Jon Husted (R) 43% CNN poll · likely voters · ±4.5% The same poll in Ohio finds Amy Acton (D) leading Vivek R…
Politicalwire.com · Yesterday 
Trump approved Ohio disaster aid ahead of rallyPresident Donald Trump approved disaster aid before rallying for Sen. Jon Husted. Democrats say the president is again politicizing federal help.
Biztoc.com · October 7, 2026
DAVID MARCUS: In Dayton, Ohio, both parties face bitter political despondencyDayton voters expressed deep skepticism toward Vivek Ramaswamy and Jon Husted, saying neither party delivers real change to struggling Ohio communities.
Fox News · October 7, 2026
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The polls behind it
17 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Ohio Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Sherrod Brown (D), with roughly a 78% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+2.9.
What do the polls say in the Ohio Senate race?
There are 17 polls of this race. The most recent, from CNN/SSRS (2026-10-05), showed D+6.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+2.9.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Ohio Senate race?
Sherrod Brown is the Democratic candidate; Jon Husted is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Ohio Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Ohio Senate forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, the lead has changed hands — it now favors Sherrod Brown (D) at 78%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Ohio Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.