Ohio Senate
The 2026 Ohio Senate race is essentially a toss-up: Sherrod Brown (D) holds a narrow 55% edge, projected to win by about 1 point, after the lead recently flipped. Updated daily from 11 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 11 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+1.1 — a 55% Democratic win.
Latest news
SCOOP: Billionaire Abortion Doula Gives Thousands to Influence This Senate RaceDozens of individuals and political action committees affiliated with abortion and transgender services have donated thousands to former Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, as he gears up to face current Republican Sen. Jon Husted in a bid to return to Washington. On…
Daily Signal · Today
Republicans Are Realizing That No One Wants Data CentersThe National Republican Senatorial Committee issued a memo Tuesday suggesting that, if incumbent Republican Ohio Sen. Jon Husted loses his upcoming election against former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), the Republican Party’s position on data centers is to blam…
Mother Jones · August 20, 2026
Leaked GOP Memo Warns Big Tech That AI Data Centers as Popular as 'Nuclear Waste'A leaked memo written by the National Republican Senatorial Committee is warning Silicon Valley that its artificial intelligence data firms are becoming a massive political liability.Axios reported on Wednesday that the GOP memo centers on the US Senate race …
Common Dreams · August 19, 2026
GOP warns 'radioactive' issue could sink senator – and 'expand far beyond Ohio'Sen. Jon Husted's Ohio race could be the canary in the coal mine for the Republican Party on an issue that has generated widespread public backlash.The National Republican Senatorial Committee has privately warned top AI companies that public backlash against…
Raw Story · August 19, 2026
Sherrod Brown Seeks Senate Comeback in OhioNew York Times: “He is trying to pull off a difficult political comeback — a quick return to the Senate, where he served three terms before losing his seat in 2024, amid shifting partisan preferences in his state and a tsunami of spending by the cryptocurrenc…
Politicalwire.com · August 15, 2026
- SCOOP: Billionaire Abortion Doula Gives Thousands to Influence This Senate Race
Dozens of individuals and political action committees affiliated with abortion and transgender services have donated thousands to former Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, as he gears up to face current Republican Sen. Jon Husted in a bid to return to Washington. On…
Daily Signal · Today 
As GOP warns data centers put Ohio Senate seat at risk, Husted defends energy policySen. Jon Husted, R-Ohio, defended President Donald Trump's energy and economic agenda on Friday during an appearance at a southwestern Ohio steel mill with Vice President JD Vance, as Republicans warn that backlash over data centers could be putting his seat …
Biztoc.com · August 21, 2026
As GOP warns data centers put Ohio Senate seat at risk, Husted defends energy policyVice President JD Vance joined Sen. Jon Husted and other GOP leaders at a Middletown, Ohio steel plant, as data center fears loom.
CNBC · August 21, 2026- Republicans Are Realizing That No One Wants Data Centers
The National Republican Senatorial Committee issued a memo Tuesday suggesting that, if incumbent Republican Ohio Sen. Jon Husted loses his upcoming election against former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), the Republican Party’s position on data centers is to blam…
Mother Jones · August 20, 2026 
Trump ignores GOP warnings, again leans into support for data centersIt’s unusual when a competitive Senate races hinges on a single issue, but as both parties eye Ohio’s Senate race, the National Republican Senatorial Committee believes Democrats are making real headway by focusing on data centers — and it might very well cos…
Biztoc.com · August 20, 2026
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The polls behind it
11 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Ohio Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Sherrod Brown (D), with roughly a 55% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+1.1. It is close enough to be a toss-up.
What do the polls say in the Ohio Senate race?
There are 11 polls of this race. The most recent, from Wedgewood Polls (2026-08-13), showed D+4.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+1.1.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Ohio Senate race?
Sherrod Brown is the Democratic candidate; Jon Husted is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Ohio Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Ohio Senate forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, the lead has changed hands — it now favors Sherrod Brown (D) at 55%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Ohio Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.