Actual result
R+26.6
Final polls said
R+32.5
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+23.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Harris Insights & Analytics | R+31.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Millersville University Center for Politics and Public Affairs | R+44.0 | 17.4 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 1998-10-30 | 1812 | R+31.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-26 | 807 | R+23.0 | 4 |
| Millersville University Center for Politics and Public Affairs | 1998-10-25 | 481 | R+44.0 | 17 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 1998-10-20 | 1611 | R+32.0 | 5 |
| Millersville University Center for Politics and Public Affairs | 1998-09-25 | 449 | R+25.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-09-15 | 409 | R+31.0 | 4 |