Actual result
D+7.0
Final polls said
D+2.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+5.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Voter/Consumer Research | D+3.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | North Star Opinion Research | R+1.0 | 8.0 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Star Opinion Research | 1998-10-28 | 679 | R+1.0 | 8 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-27 | 806 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| Voter/Consumer Research | 1998-10-12 | 450 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-09-29 | 813 | D+7.0 | 0 |