Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 1 poll of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+12.1 — a 77% Republican win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
Graham Platner Had a Much Better Primary Result Than Lindsey GrahamPolitics / June 12, 2026 Graham Platner Had a Much Better Primary Result Than Lindsey Graham The anti-establishment Democrat in Maine won much bigger than the establishment Republican in South Carolina. John Nichols Share …
Thenation.com · June 12, 2026- Sen. Lindsey Graham wins primary over ‘America First’ challenger - Politico
Sen. Lindsey Graham wins primary over ‘America First’ challengerPolitico South Carolina Senate Primary Election 2026 Live ResultsNBC News In South Carolina primary, Trump’s sway, Mace’s future at stake. See live results.The Washington Post Annie Andrews wins …
Slashdot.org · June 10, 2026 - Sen. Lindsey Graham wins GOP primary, defeating wealthy challenger in South Carolina - NBC News
Sen. Lindsey Graham wins GOP primary, defeating wealthy challenger in South CarolinaNBC News South Carolina Senate Primary Election 2026 Live ResultsNBC News Sen. Lindsey Graham wins primary over ‘America First’ challengerPolitico Annie Andrews wins Democrati…
Slashdot.org · June 10, 2026 
Dem who vows to impeach RFK Jr clinches nomination in key Senate raceDr. Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, wins South Carolina's Democratic primary to likely challenge Sen. Lindsey Graham in his bid for a fifth Senate term.
Fox News · June 10, 2026
South Carolina pediatrician hoping to unseat Sen. Lindsey GrahamIs South Carolina Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham beatable in his bid for reelection? Dr. Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, is running as a Democrat and she thinks so. Andrews joins "The Takeout" to discuss her campaign.
CBS News · May 6, 2026
MAGA flies into rage over air conditioners: 'Democrats are coming for your AC!'Republicans yelped about socialism after Mayor Zohran Mamdani urged New Yorkers to keep their thermostats set at 78 degrees to ease strain on the city's power grid during a brutal heat wave.The city is expecting numerous days of extreme temperatures through t…
Raw Story · July 2, 2026- Lindsey Graham says Trump will seize the Strait of Hormuz 'by force' if Iran deal collapses
South Carolina Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham said Sunday that President Trump will take military control of the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S.-Iran framework agreement falls apart, escalating the administration's rhetoric on the same morning Vice President JD …
Freerepublic.com · June 21, 2026 
Lindsey Graham: 'Obliterate' Iran if there's Strait of Hormuz resistanceSen. Lindsey Graham, R-South Carolina, appeared on CBS' "Face the Nation" with Margaret Brennan and stressed diplomacy amid ongoing talks with Iran as President Donald Trump's administration looks to end its war in the Middle East. When asked if he agrees wit…
Biztoc.com · June 21, 2026
11 rumors about Lindsey Graham, examinedSnopes has fact-checked rumors about the South Carolina Republican's sexuality, support for war and switch from a Trump critic to supporter.
Snopes.com · June 21, 2026
Transcript: Trumpworld Shivs JD Vance as Leaks Discredit Iran DealThe following is a lightly edited transcript of the June 17 episode of the Daily Blast podcast. Listen to it here.Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.JD Vance is h…
The New Republic · June 17, 2026
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Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | 2026-03-01 | 700 | R+5.0 |