VotePredictor
past elections

New Jersey House

Maryanne S. Connelly (D) vs Michael Ferguson (R)

Actual result
R+6.0
Final polls said
R+11.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
Winner
Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1Diversified Research IncR+11.05.0

Polls (1)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
Diversified Research Inc2000-10-19300R+11.05