Actual result
R+6.3
Final polls said
R+10.8
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American Research Group | R+4.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Northern Arizona University Social Research Laboratory | R+9.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) | R+3.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Market Solutions Group | R+10.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | R+10.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Arizona State University Morrison Institute for Public Policy | R+10.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | Harris Insights & Analytics | R+12.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 8 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+12.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2000-11-03 | 4656 | R+12.0 | 6 |
| Market Solutions Group | 2000-10-30 | 432 | R+10.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2000-10-29 | 510 | R+10.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2000-10-21 | 610 | R+12.0 | 6 |
| Arizona State University Morrison Institute for Public Policy | 2000-10-21 | 709 | R+10.0 | 4 |
| Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) | 2000-10-05 | 709 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2000-09-27 | 500 | R+7.0 | 1 |
| Northern Arizona University Social Research Laboratory | 2000-09-16 | 400 | R+9.0 | 3 |
| Arizona State University Morrison Institute for Public Policy | 2000-09-16 | 400 | D+10.0 | 16 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2000-09-13 | 934 | EVEN | 6 |
| American Research Group | 2000-09-13 | 600 | R+4.0 | 2 |