Actual result
D+11.8
Final polls said
D+5.1
10 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FM3 Research | D+13.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | American Research Group | D+14.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Los Angeles Times | D+7.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+6.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | D+6.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | D+5.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | Public Policy Institute of California | D+5.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+3.0 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | Zogby Analytics | EVEN | 11.8 | ✗ |
Polls (18)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2000-11-05 | 596 | EVEN | 12 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2000-11-03 | 25017 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | 2000-11-03 | 924 | D+5.0 | 7 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2000-11-02 | 600 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2000-10-31 | 530 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2000-10-29 | 1536 | D+3.0 | 9 |
| Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | 2000-10-29 | 990 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2000-10-24 | 530 | D+4.0 | 8 |
| Los Angeles Times | 2000-10-21 | 852 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 2000-10-15 | 1096 | D+5.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2000-10-10 | 500 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2000-10-07 | 805 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | 2000-10-03 | 1018 | D+13.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2000-09-26 | 500 | D+13.0 | 1 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2000-09-13 | 5242 | D+9.0 | 3 |
| American Research Group | 2000-09-13 | 600 | D+14.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 2000-09-08 | 1099 | D+9.0 | 3 |
| FM3 Research | 2000-09-07 | 800 | D+13.0 | 1 |