Actual result
D+4.2
Final polls said
D+1.2
23 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Decision Forecasting | D+4.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+5.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | D+5.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Market Shares Corp. | D+5.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+3.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Opinion Dynamics | D+3.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | American Research Group | D+6.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | University of Connecticut | D+6.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | Zogby Analytics | D+8.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 10 | SurveyUSA | EVEN | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 11 | Lincoln Institute | EVEN | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 12 | Millersville University Center for Politics and Public Affairs | R+1.0 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 13 | Los Angeles Times | R+2.0 | 6.2 | ✗ |
| 14 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+2.0 | 6.2 | ✗ |
| 15 | West Chester University | D+11.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 16 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+4.0 | 8.2 | ✗ |
| 17 | EPIC-MRA | D+18.0 | 13.8 | ✓ |
Polls (33)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2000-11-05 | 1091 | R+4.0 | 8 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2000-11-04 | 600 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2000-11-02 | 644 | R+5.0 | 9 |
| Decision Forecasting | 2000-11-01 | 1032 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2000-11-01 | 600 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2000-11-01 | 625 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2000-11-01 | 11301 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2000-11-01 | 800 | EVEN | 4 |
| American Research Group | 2000-10-31 | 600 | D+6.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2000-10-30 | 800 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2000-10-29 | 967 | R+3.0 | 7 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2000-10-29 | 600 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| Millersville University Center for Politics and Public Affairs | 2000-10-28 | 550 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| Los Angeles Times | 2000-10-28 | 420 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2000-10-26 | 600 | R+7.0 | 11 |
| Opinion Dynamics | 2000-10-25 | 600 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | 2000-10-24 | 400 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2000-10-22 | 800 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| American Research Group | 2000-10-22 | 600 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| West Chester University | 2000-10-21 | 709 | D+11.0 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2000-10-18 | 1043 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| Lincoln Institute | 2000-10-17 | 728 | EVEN | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2000-10-16 | 800 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| American Research Group | 2000-10-14 | 600 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2000-10-08 | 800 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| University of Connecticut | 2000-10-07 | 596 | D+6.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2000-10-02 | 800 | D+6.0 | 2 |
| Millersville University Center for Politics and Public Affairs | 2000-09-30 | 550 | D+12.0 | 8 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2000-09-27 | 626 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| Market Shares Corp. | 2000-09-14 | 500 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2000-09-13 | 1777 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| American Research Group | 2000-09-13 | 600 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2000-09-10 | 400 | D+18.0 | 14 |