VotePredictor
past elections

Michigan Senate

Debbie Stabenow (D) vs Spencer Abraham (R)

Actual result
D+1.6
Final polls said
R+2.8
17 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
Winner
Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1Harris Insights & AnalyticsEVEN1.6
2Zogby AnalyticsD+4.02.4
3Mitchell Research & CommunicationsR+3.04.6
4EPIC-MRAR+5.06.6
5SurveyUSAR+6.07.6
6Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)R+6.07.6
7Marketing Resource Group (MRG)R+8.09.6
8CBS News/The New York TimesR+11.012.6

Polls (27)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
Zogby Analytics2000-11-05593D+4.02
SurveyUSA2000-11-04600R+6.08
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2000-11-04787R+6.08
Harris Insights & Analytics2000-11-036748EVEN2
Zogby Analytics2000-11-02600EVEN2
EPIC-MRA2000-11-01500R+5.07
Mitchell Research & Communications2000-11-01800R+3.05
Mitchell Research & Communications2000-10-30800R+2.04
Zogby Analytics2000-10-30600D+9.07
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2000-10-29956R+1.03
SurveyUSA2000-10-28600R+2.04
Zogby Analytics2000-10-27600D+2.00
Marketing Resource Group (MRG)2000-10-25500R+8.010
EPIC-MRA2000-10-24500EVEN2
Mitchell Research & Communications2000-10-24800R+3.05
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2000-10-18626R+19.021
EPIC-MRA2000-10-18500R+7.09
SurveyUSA2000-10-14679R+8.010
Mitchell Research & Communications2000-10-11800R+17.019
Marketing Resource Group (MRG)2000-10-11500R+14.016
EPIC-MRA2000-10-11500R+10.012
EPIC-MRA2000-09-27500R+9.011
SurveyUSA2000-09-24600R+1.03
CBS News/The New York Times2000-09-241005R+11.013
Marketing Resource Group (MRG)2000-09-15500R+12.014
Harris Insights & Analytics2000-09-131458EVEN2
EPIC-MRA2000-09-10500R+12.014