VotePredictor
all races

Michigan Governor

Jocelyn Benson (D) vs John James (R)

Forecast — win probability
Jocelyn Benson (D)
74%
(R) John James
26%
Lean D · model margin D+7.2

Why this forecast

This forecast is poll-driven: 8 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+7.2 — a 74% Democratic win.

Forecast over time

The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.

0255075100FebMarAprMayJunJul26% R74% D
Democrats 74% Republicans 26%

Latest news

Jocelyn Benson (D)
John James (R)

Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.

Polls (8)

PollsterDatenPoll
TIPP Insights2026-05-231163D+11.0
Mitchell Research2026-05-07607D+12.0
Glengariff Group2026-05-01600D+5.0
Impact Research2026-03-29800D+4.0
Michigan State University / YouGov2026-03-241000D+7.0
Impact Research2026-02-16800D+3.0
Glengariff Group2026-02-02600D+5.0
Glengariff Group2026-01-06600D+2.0