Michigan Governor
Jocelyn Benson (D) is a modest favorite to win the 2026 Michigan Governor race — about a 66% chance, winning by about 4 points in the projection, after the lead recently flipped. Updated daily from 13 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 13 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+4.5 — a 66% Democratic win.
Latest news
Michigan Democrat Jocelyn Benson Runs Away from Her Work with the Southern Poverty Law CenterMichigan Democrat nominee for Governor Jocelyn Benson is running away from her work with the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) in her campaign to become the state's chief executive. The post Michigan Democrat Jocelyn Benson Runs Away from Her Work with the S…
Breitbart News · August 21, 2026- MI Sheriff Drops Bombshell: Whistleblower Reveals How Sec Of State Is Putting Non-Citizens On Voter Rolls [VIDEO]
When it comes to investigating and exposing voter fraud in Michigan, Barry County Sheriff Dar Leaf is arguably the most committed law enforcement official in the state. This evening, after speaking with a whistleblower who works at the Michigan Secretary of S…
Freerepublic.com · August 19, 2026 
Michigan Leaders Raise Alarm Over “Christian Crusader March”A group of religious extremists are planning a “Christian Crusader March” in Dearborn, Michigan, Tuesday evening, and Democratic Representative Rashida Tlaib, whose district includes Dearborn, called out the lack of response to the demonstration, noting the …
The New Republic · August 18, 2026- HUGE! Jocelyn Benson’s Gubernatorial Campaign Hits Snag — Michigan Democrat Must Be De-Certified According to State Election Law Says Prominent Activist (VIDEO)
Michigan activist Robert Davis joined investigative reporter Charlie LeBuff on his “No BS Newshour” podcast that was released on Wednesday. During their discussion, Davis argued that Jocelyn Benson is ineligible to run for public office in Michigan after she …
Freerepublic.com · August 17, 2026 
Fish Are a Big Deal in This Senate RaceYou’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonMary Peltola is putting the “fish” back in kitchen table issuesAlaska Senate candi…
The New Republic · August 14, 2026
- Fish Are a Big Deal in This Senate Race
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonMary Peltola is putting the “fish” back in kitchen table issuesAlaska Senate candi…
The New Republic · August 14, 2026 
Trump-Backed John James Wins Michigan GOP Governor PrimaryRepublican Congressman John James has won Michigan's Republican primary for governor, earning the party's nomination for the November general election. According to the report, James, who was endorsed by President Donald Trump, defeated businessman Perry Joh…
Biztoc.com · August 5, 2026- Michigan Republican governor primary results: John James, Perry Johnson - Bridge Michigan
Michigan Republican governor primary results: John James, Perry JohnsonBridge Michigan Michigan Governor Primary 2026: Live Election Results, Benson vs. SwansonThe New York Times Michigan’s top election official wins Democratic primary for governor, advances …
Slashdot.org · August 5, 2026 
Rep. John James Wins Republican Nomination for Michigan GovernorRep. John James has won the Republican nomination in the Michigan governor's race over businessman Perry Johnson. The post Rep. John James Wins Republican Nomination for Michigan Governor appeared first on Breitbart.
Breitbart News · August 5, 2026
Trump-backed Black Republican beats back smears and fights to kill haunting statewide curseRepublican Representative John James won Michigan's Republican primary for governor Tuesday, beating businessman Perry Johnson after fending off weeks of personal attacks.
Dailymail.com · August 5, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
13 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Michigan Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Jocelyn Benson (D), with roughly a 66% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+4.5.
What do the polls say in the Michigan Governor race?
There are 13 polls of this race. The most recent, from Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research (2026-08-11), showed D+5.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+4.5.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Michigan Governor race?
Jocelyn Benson is the Democratic candidate; John James is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Michigan Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Michigan Governor forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, the lead has changed hands — it now favors Jocelyn Benson (D) at 66%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Michigan Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.