Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 8 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+7.2 — a 74% Democratic win.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
Pete Buttigieg to endorse Jocelyn Benson for Michigan governorPete Buttigieg will endorse Jocelyn Benson in her campaign for Michigan governor on Monday, weighing in on a race he was once a favorite to win and wielding his influence in a swing state that will be critical to Democrats’ efforts to win the Senate this fall…
Biztoc.com · July 6, 2026
Trump's election meddling crashes into a wall as judge blocks mail-in voting schemePresident Donald Trump's campaign to take control of U.S. elections suffered a blow after a federal judge blocked his order to limit mail-in voting.On Thursday, U.S. District Judge Indira Talwani, sitting in Boston, voided the core of Trump's March 2026 execu…
Raw Story · June 25, 2026
'Criminal': MAGA comes unglued as Trump DOJ suffers another big court blowPro-Trump influencers lit into a federal appeals court Wednesday after it refused to force Michigan to hand over the personal data of every registered voter in the state.In a 2-1 decision, the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals held that the Justice Department ca…
Raw Story · June 24, 2026
Court thwarts Trump election meddling scheme by nixing Michigan voter rolls demandA federal appeals court ruled the Trump administration has no legal right to demand voters' private data, dealing a fresh blow to its unlawful bid to control American elections.The Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals handed down the 2-1 decision Wednesday, siding …
Raw Story · June 24, 2026
Michigan Gubernatorial Candidate Questioned Over Work For Southern Poverty Law CenterMichigan Republicans want to know what role, if any, Jocelyn Benson played in the funding of hate groups when she sat on the board of the Southern Poverty Law Center. The post Michigan Gubernatorial Candidate Questioned Over Work For Southern Poverty Law Cent…
Legalinsurrection.com · May 19, 2026
Transcript: Trump Shows New Signs of Midterm Panic as Brutal Polls HitThe following is a lightly edited transcript of the July 2 episode of the Daily Blast podcast. Listen to it here.Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.This week, The…
The New Republic · July 2, 2026- Trump endorses John James in Michigan governor race
President Donald Trump on Monday endorsed U.S. Rep. John James, who is running for governor in Michigan."It is my Great Honor to endorse America First Congressman, John James, who is running to become the next Governor of the Beautiful State of Michigan!" the…
Freerepublic.com · June 29, 2026 - Trump endorses John James in Michigan governor race as GOP rival exits primary - Fox News
Trump endorses John James in Michigan governor race as GOP rival exits primaryFox News John James campaigns in Zeeland following Trump endorsementWOODTV.com Aric Nesbitt drops out of Michigan governor race, endorses John JamesClickOnDetroit | WDIV Local 4 Pre…
Slashdot.org · June 23, 2026
Trump endorses John James in Michigan governor race as GOP rival exits primaryPresident Donald Trump issues full-throated endorsement of U.S. Rep. John James for Michigan governor prior to the Republican gubernatorial primary
Fox News · June 23, 2026
John James’ Chances of Flipping Michigan as Trump Endorses HimPresident Donald Trump endorsed Representative John James in Michigan’s gubernatorial election, expected to be among the most competitive races of the 2026 midterms, on Monday. Both Democrats and Republicans view Michigan, a swing state, as being competitive …
Biztoc.com · June 22, 2026
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Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| TIPP Insights | 2026-05-23 | 1163 | D+11.0 |
| Mitchell Research | 2026-05-07 | 607 | D+12.0 |
| Glengariff Group | 2026-05-01 | 600 | D+5.0 |
| Impact Research | 2026-03-29 | 800 | D+4.0 |
| Michigan State University / YouGov | 2026-03-24 | 1000 | D+7.0 |
| Impact Research | 2026-02-16 | 800 | D+3.0 |
| Glengariff Group | 2026-02-02 | 600 | D+5.0 |
| Glengariff Group | 2026-01-06 | 600 | D+2.0 |