Michigan 2026 elections
Everything on Michigan's 2026 ballot and in its congressional delegation, in one place: the Senate and Governor races, 4 competitive U.S. House districts, and its 2 senators and 13 representatives — each with a daily-updated forecast or voting record.
Statewide races
Competitive House districts (4)
District forecasts are fundamentals-based (no district polls yet) — presidential lean, incumbency, and the national environment. Click one to see why.
MI-7Tom Barrett (R) · incumbent · pres lean R+0.5Lean R82% · R+6.4
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+0.5, held by Tom Barrett (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+11.3; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.4 — a 82% Republican win.
MI-10John James (R) · incumbent · pres lean R+5.5Lean R84% · R+6.9
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+5.5, held by John James (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+11.8; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.9 — a 84% Republican win.
MI-4Bill Huizenga (R) · incumbent · pres lean R+5.5Lean R84% · R+6.9
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+5.5, held by Bill Huizenga (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+11.8; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.9 — a 84% Republican win.
MI-8Kristen McDonald Rivet (D) · incumbent · pres lean R+1.0Lean D85% · D+7.1
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+1.0, held by Kristen McDonald Rivet (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+2.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+7.1 — a 85% Democratic win.