VotePredictor
past elections

Minnesota Senate

Mark Dayton (D) vs Rod Grams (R)

Actual result
D+5.5
Final polls said
D+8.7
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
Winner
Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyD+5.00.5
2Minneapolis Star TribuneD+9.03.5
3Harris Insights & AnalyticsD+10.04.5
4Tarrance GroupD+1.04.5
5St. Cloud State UniversityD+15.09.5

Polls (8)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
Harris Insights & Analytics2000-11-033793D+10.04
Minneapolis Star Tribune2000-11-02900D+9.03
Tarrance Group2000-11-01450D+1.05
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2000-10-26625D+5.01
St. Cloud State University2000-10-19514D+15.09
Minneapolis Star Tribune2000-10-16900D+12.06
Minneapolis Star Tribune2000-09-25900D+14.08
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2000-09-24625D+5.01