Minnesota Senate
Peggy Flanagan (D) is the clear favorite to win the 2026 Minnesota Senate race — about a 85% chance, winning by about 4 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 4 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 4 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+3.9 — a 85% Democratic win.
Latest news
Hillary Clinton issues endorsement in US midterm electionsFormer U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton endorsed Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan for U.S. Senate as the Democratic candidate runs against Republican Michele Tafoya.
Fox News · Yesterday
Hillary Clinton Endorses Peggy Flanagan In Minnesota Senate RaceThe Democratic lieutenant governor is the first to get Clinton’s public backing in any 2026 Senate or House race.
HuffPost · October 7, 2026- Minnesota Can Go Red This Year. Here’s Why.
I’ve said before that Republicans head into the 2026 midterms in a stronger position than the national polls suggest, and Minnesota is a big reason why. Along with New Hampshire, the state has become an overlooked Senate pickup opportunity, which is remarkabl…
Freerepublic.com · October 5, 2026 - DAVID MARCUS: Peggy Flanagan's DEI record and fraud scandal put Minnesota Senate race in the spotlight
"The lieutenant governor [Peggy Flanagan], even as we sit here today, continues to take absolutely no accountability for any of the fraud issues, and she continues to blame the governor. And I'm going to be honest: It's p---ing me off." The above quote is not…
Freerepublic.com · October 3, 2026 - CNN Analyst Delivers STARK WARNING To Democrats As ANOTHER Bombshell Poll Shows Republican Surge!
This video, presented by Black Conservative Perspective, critiques the prevailing media narrative of an inevitable "Blue Wave" in the upcoming elections, arguing that internal Democratic Party divisions and surprising polling data suggest a much more competit…
Freerepublic.com · October 1, 2026
GOP Senate nominees in four swing states share the same awkward secretRepublicans in some of the country’s most hotly contested Senate races have something in common that might drag them down.Four GOP candidates – former Rep. Mike Rogers in Michigan, Sen. Roger Marshall in Kansas, Michele Tafoya in Minnesota and Texas Attorney …
Raw Story · Today
‘Florida resident’: How owning property in Florida has become a political liability for GOP Senate candidatesFlorida has long played an outsized role in national politics. But this midterm cycle, the state also holds another unique distinction: It’s where multiple Republican congressional candidates — who are running for Senate in other states — own property. Mike R…
Biztoc.com · Today- Hillary Clinton issues endorsement in US midterm elections
Former U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton endorsed Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan for U.S. Senate as the Democratic candidate runs against Republican Michele Tafoya.
Fox News · Yesterday 
Minnesota Senate hopeful warns threat level rising amid rash of Somali gang crime, terror plotRepublican Senate candidate Michele Tafoya warns of rising Somali gang violence and a foiled ISIS-inspired terror plot targeting Mall of America.
Fox News · Yesterday
GOP Senate hopeful sounds alarm after alleged Mall of America terror plot thwartedMichele Tafoya says Minnesotans "feel under a level of threat" after the FBI arrested an 18-year-old over an alleged ISIS-inspired Mall of America plot.
Fox News · Yesterday
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Minnesota Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Peggy Flanagan (D), with roughly a 85% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+3.9.
What do the polls say in the Minnesota Senate race?
There are 4 polls of this race. The most recent, from Big Data Poll (2026-09-30), showed D+2.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+3.9.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Minnesota Senate race?
Peggy Flanagan is the Democratic candidate; Michele Tafoya is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Minnesota Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Minnesota Senate forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Peggy Flanagan's (D) lead has widened to 85%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Minnesota Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.