Minnesota Senate
There's no live forecast for the 2026 Minnesota Senate race: every poll on file asks about Angie Craig, who lost the Democratic primary to Peggy Flanagan, and nobody has polled the new matchup yet.
Nominee changed — Flanagan won the primary
Every poll on file for this seat asks about Angie Craig, but she lost the August 11 DFL primary to Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, 58.7% to 39.7%, and conceded. The DFL has a nominee and it is not the one the polls name, so the stored win probability describes a Craig-vs-Tafoya matchup that will never be on a ballot. The forecast returns as soon as a pollster asks about Flanagan vs Michele Tafoya.
No forecast is published for this race. Peggy Flanagan is the Democratic nominee; the forecast returns once a pollster asks about the new matchup.
Angie Craig lost the primary on August 11, 2026. Because this seat has no forecast, it is held out of the Senate-control simulation rather than counted for either party. source
No forecast here — here's where the race is live
This seat is waiting on a poll of its new matchup. These 2026 races have a live forecast:
Latest news
Vital empty Senate chair hands Dems knife to gut GOP's biggest bill: analysisCongressional Democrats are playing hardball on the farm bill, and with the midterms approaching, they appear to see little reason to fold.The clearest sign came at an Aug. 6 markup, where Democrats blocked the bill from advancing in the Senate Agriculture Co…
Raw Story · Yesterday
Michele Tafoya, Minnesotans Are Furious At ICE Murders You Refuse To CondemnMichele Tafoya, the Republican candidate in Minnesota's Senate race, is learning to lie like the rest of the Trump administration, spinning a laughable tale of woe for her state and claiming Minnesotans are embarrassed to admit where they're from. Every smear…
Crooksandliars.com · August 14, 2026
This Surprising Senate Race Could Ruin Democrats’ PlansYou’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonThe challenge Peggy Flanagan will face in MinnesotaIf Democrats want any shot at t…
The New Republic · August 13, 2026
Progressive Flank of the Democratic Party Scores Big in MinnesotaOn Tuesday, Minnesota’s far-left progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan secured her party’s nomination for a soon-to-be-vacant U.S. Senate seat. Flanagan was declared the victor in her race against Rep. Angie Craig, D-Minn., after receiving the backing of 59 per…
Daily Signal · August 12, 2026
Peggy Flanagan’s Many Crush the Money in the Minnesota Senate PrimaryJoan Walsh Corporate Dem Angie Craig outspent Flanagan by roughly four to one. But Flanagan’s ground game, and her promise to “avenge Minnesota” after ICE’s cruelty, gave her a 20-point win. The post Peggy Flanagan’s Many Crush the Money in the Minne…
Thenation.com · August 12, 2026
- Michele Tafoya, Minnesotans Are Furious At ICE Murders You Refuse To Condemn
Michele Tafoya, the Republican candidate in Minnesota's Senate race, is learning to lie like the rest of the Trump administration, spinning a laughable tale of woe for her state and claiming Minnesotans are embarrassed to admit where they're from. Every smear…
Crooksandliars.com · August 14, 2026 
Transcript: Fox Hits Trump with Brutal Polls as Aides Feed Him HopiumThe following is a lightly edited transcript of the August 14 episode of the Daily Blast podcast. Listen to it here.After we recorded, new Fox polls found Dems up eight in Ohio and down four in Michigan.Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Repub…
The New Republic · August 14, 2026
Former Vikings captain Jack Brewer reacts to Abdul El-Sayed's Senate primary victory in MichiganJack Brewer calls Abdul El-Sayed's Michigan Senate primary win a "warning shot to America" and backs Michele Tafoya to flip Minnesota blue voters.
Fox News · August 13, 2026- Former Vikings captain Jack Brewer reacts to Abdul El-Sayed Senate primary victory in Minnesota
Jack Brewer calls Abdul El-Sayed's Michigan Senate primary win a "warning shot to America" and backs Michele Tafoya to flip Minnesota blue voters.
Fox News · August 13, 2026 - This Surprising Senate Race Could Ruin Democrats’ Plans
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonThe challenge Peggy Flanagan will face in MinnesotaIf Democrats want any shot at t…
The New Republic · August 13, 2026
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These polls are of the former matchup against Angie Craig and are kept as a record only — they no longer describe this race.
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is running in the 2026 Minnesota Senate race?
Peggy Flanagan (D) is the Democratic nominee, against Michele Tafoya (Republican). The polls on file predate the primary: they ask about Angie Craig, who lost it.
Why is there no forecast for the 2026 Minnesota Senate race?
The polls on file are of a matchup that no longer exists, so publishing a number from them would be misleading. The forecast returns as soon as a pollster surveys Peggy Flanagan against Michele Tafoya.
When is the 2026 Minnesota Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.