VotePredictor
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Minnesota Senate

Angie Craig (D) vs Michele Tafoya (R)

Forecast — win probability
Angie Craig (D)
61%
(R) Michele Tafoya
39%
Toss-up · model margin D+4.4

Why this forecast

This forecast is poll-driven: 2 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+4.4 — a 61% Democratic win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.

Forecast over time

The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.

0255075100MarAprMayJunJul39% R61% D
Democrats 61% Republicans 39%

Latest news

Angie Craig (D)
Michele Tafoya (R)

Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.

Polls (2)

PollsterDatenPoll
Impact Research2026-05-28808D+7.0
Emerson College2026-02-081000D+6.4