Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 2 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+4.4 — a 61% Democratic win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
Democratic Progressives Are Winning Primaries Everywhere. Here’s Why.Abdul El-Sayed ran for governor of Michigan in 2018, emphasizing his progressive views and endorsement from Senator Bernie Sanders. He didn’t gain much traction and ultimately lost by more than 20 percentage points in the Democratic primary to Gretchen Whitme…
The New Republic · June 16, 2026
ICE Ravaged Minnesota. Now It's Roiling Democrats' Senate Race.Progressive Lt. Gov Peggy Flanagan is surging as moderate Rep. Angie Craig runs from her immigration votes that aided Trump.
HuffPost · June 14, 2026
Trump: Democrat To Rollins: 'You Own Every Single Bit' Of This EconomyMinnesota Rep. Angie Craig became fed up with Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins is still blaming President Biden for the high cost of diesel fuel and failing farms, and pointedly told her that the Trump administration controlled all of Congress a year and …
Crooksandliars.com · June 5, 2026
Minnesota’s Peggy Flanagan Wins the DFL Nomination for a Senate SeatJoan Walsh Her opponent, Representative Angie Craig, campaigned for the DFL nod for months, but declared she would no longer seek its endorsement two days before the party convention. The post Minnesota’s Peggy Flanagan Wins the DFL Nomination for a …
Thenation.com · June 2, 2026
Transcript: How Democrats Can Win the Crime DebateThis is a lightly edited transcript of the June 1 edition of Right Now With Perry Bacon. You can watch the video here or by following this show on YouTube or Substack. Perry Bacon: Good morning. I’m Perry Bacon. I’m the host of Right Now on The New Republic. …
The New Republic · June 2, 2026
Exclusive: Minnesota GOP-Endorsed Senate Candidate Adam Schwarze Blasts DC's 'Establishment Class'Adam Schwarze celebrated winning the Minnesota GOP's endorsement for Senate over Michele Tafoya and blasted DC's "elite establishment class." The post Exclusive: Minnesota GOP-Endorsed Senate Candidate Adam Schwarze Blasts DC’s ‘Establishment Class’ appeared …
Breitbart News · June 1, 2026
Hall of Famer Tony Dungy endorses Michele Tafoya in crowded Minnesota Republican primary for U.S. SenatePro Football Hall of Fame coach Tony Dungy endorses former NBC sideline reporter Michele Tafoya in Minnesota's Republican U.S. Senate primary race.
Fox News · May 26, 2026- Michele Tafoya Opens Commanding Lead in Minnesota GOP Senate Primary
Former NBC Sunday Night Football sideline reporter Michele Tafoya is dominating the early Republican primary race for Minnesota’s open 2026 U.S. Senate seat. A Quantus Insights survey conducted May 6-8 among 663 likely Republican primary voters puts Tafoya at…
Freerepublic.com · May 24, 2026
Ex-ESPN star Michele Tafoya now running for Senate as Republican faces stiff opposition over 'squishy' viewsLong-time sideline reporter Michele Tafoya hopes to break the Republican Party's 20-year losing streak in Minnesota's statewide elections by winning a senate seat this November.
Dailymail.com · April 29, 2026- Michele Tafoya blames George Floyd riots as 'turning point' for Minnesota downfall under Tim WalzYahoo Entertainment · April 22, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | 2026-05-28 | 808 | D+7.0 |
| Emerson College | 2026-02-08 | 1000 | D+6.4 |