Minnesota Governor
Amy Klobuchar (D) is the clear favorite to win the 2026 Minnesota Governor race — about a 91% chance, winning by about 13 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 5 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 5 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+13.3 — a 91% Democratic win.
Latest news
Dems Are Looking Good in North Carolina—or Are They?You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonDems are looking good in North Carolina—or are they?If Democrats want to take back…
The New Republic · August 19, 2026
Senators slap back as Trump launches 'alarming' attack on privacyWhat Happened: Citing reporting by ProPublica, eight Democratic U.S. senators have criticized the Trump administration’s demands to access the health data of millions of people as a condition of giving lifesaving aid to other countries. In a letter to Secreta…
Raw Story · August 19, 2026
The Endless, Maddening Wait for a Woman PresidentI was sitting at the bar of a coffee shop in South Austin, researching the suffragist movement.“Those are old newspaper articles?” the guy next to me asked. He might have been in his thirties. He had a loose hipster haircut and expensive sneakers. “Very cool.…
The New Republic · August 13, 2026
Trump-Backed Candidate Crashes Out After Losing Primary RacePillow magnate and election denier Mike Lindell won’t accept his loss in Minnesota’s gubernatorial primary, claiming there are anomalies in the voting numbers. Despite President Donald Trump’s endorsement, Lindell lost to Minnesota House Speaker Lisa DeMuth b…
The New Republic · August 12, 2026
What a strange feeling…I’m not used to this. I’m accustomed to deep disappointment the day after an election, but this year, the results all rolled my way. Amy Klobuchar won the DFL nomination for governor. I told you, she’s a machine, she got about 90% of the votes. She’ll be comp…
Freethoughtblogs.com · August 12, 2026
Lindell Says He’ll Pay For Recount After Losing Minnesota Race—As Trump Stays SilentLindell lost to Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth in the Minnesota GOP gubernatorial primary.
Forbes · August 20, 2026
Mike Lindell says he’ll pay for recount after double-digit loss in Minnesota governor primaryThe MyPillow founder is prepared to pay nearly $1 million to cover the costs associated with a hand recount after he lost to state House Speaker Lisa Demuth.
NBC News · August 19, 2026
Mike Lindell Will Fund Statewide Hand Recount After Loss“Mike Lindell, the MyPillow founder who finished a distant second to Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth in the Aug. 11 Republican primary for governor, announced Wednesday that he will personally pay for a hand recount and audit of every paper ballot cast in…
Politicalwire.com · August 19, 2026- How GOP Can Pull Off an Upset in Minnesota
President Trump loves flexing his political muscle, especially in Republican primaries. When businessman and TV personality Mike Lindell secured Trump’s endorsement in the Minnesota governor’s race, he thought the nomination was his. Minnesota House Speaker L…
Freerepublic.com · August 19, 2026 - Dems Are Looking Good in North Carolina—or Are They?
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonDems are looking good in North Carolina—or are they?If Democrats want to take back…
The New Republic · August 19, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Minnesota Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Amy Klobuchar (D), with roughly a 91% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+13.3.
What do the polls say in the Minnesota Governor race?
There are 5 polls of this race. The most recent, from SurveyUSA (2026-08-17), showed D+16.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+13.3.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Minnesota Governor race?
Amy Klobuchar is the Democratic candidate; Lisa Demuth is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Minnesota Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Minnesota Governor forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Amy Klobuchar's (D) lead has widened to 91%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Minnesota Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.