Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 4 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+9.1 — a 79% Democratic win.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
Democrats Begrudgingly Agree That It Is Good to End a War They OpposeThe United States and Iran have signed a Memorandum of Understanding, or (MOU), to end an Iran War that—when it began—Congressional Democrats widely denounced as a reprehensible and illegal “war of choice.” One might logically expect those same Democrats to w…
The New Republic · June 22, 2026
It’s going to be a boring election season in MinnesotaThe state conventions have put up their choices for governor, since Walz has announced that he won’t be running. On the Democratic side, we’ll have Amy Klobuchar, the current senator. I can’t get excited about her — she’s your standard inoffensive middle-of-t…
Freethoughtblogs.com · June 1, 2026
MINNESOTA TEAMSTERS ENDORSE AMY KLOBUCHAR FOR GOVERNORSenator is Long-Time Ally of Labor, Thorn in Big Tech's Side MINNEAPOLIS, May 13, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Minnesota Teamsters are endorsing Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) in the race for governor. With more than 50,000 members and retirees across the state, Teamst…
PRNewswire · May 13, 2026
The ‘moderate’ conCall it the Mod Con. And rhe song remains the same: from the Minneapolis Star Tribune . Klobuchar pitches moderation in governor’s race, rebuffs redistricting push for Minnesota. The Star Tribune reports, U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar declined Friday to embrace Gov…
Power Line · May 10, 2026- Minnesota: land of 10,000 frauds
Minnesota is the land of 10,000 lakes. It's also the home of imbeciles Tim Walz, Amy Klobuchar, Tina Smith and Jacob Frey. It's also home to the largest collection of grifters in the country- the Somali community. It's also home to disturbingly corrupt DA's a…
Freerepublic.com · May 8, 2026
- JUST IN: New Poll Gives Mike Lindell Huge News In Minnesota Governor Race
Mike Lindell just posted numbers that have to be making his rivals nervous. A new Big Data Poll released by the Lindell campaign shows the MyPillow founder leading the Minnesota Republican gubernatorial primary at 21 percent, narrowly ahead of Minnesota House…
Freerepublic.com · May 23, 2026
'I'm Not Allowed To Come': Mike Lindell Reveals GOP Banned Him From Governor's DebateMyPillow CEO Mike Lindell says the Minnesota Republican Party has shut him out of a major gubernatorial debate — and he's not staying quiet about it. "They have a big GOP endorsement where they have this big debate, and I'm not allowed to come," Lindell tol…
Crooksandliars.com · May 18, 2026
Republican DWI stop takes a turn as gun found on drunk passenger — also GOP lawmaker: copsWhen Rep. Elliott Engen, R-White Bear Lake, was arrested on suspicion of driving while impaired early Friday, one passenger in his care was Rep. Walter Hudson, who was also impaired and in possession of a 9 mm Smith & Wesson handgun in his waistband, which po…
Raw Story · March 30, 2026
Minnesota House speaker warns Americans will be 'shocked' by scope of fraud crisisMinnesota Republicans expose alleged fraud crisis, with House Speaker Lisa Demuth warning Americans will be "shocked" by the full extent of the scandal.
Fox News · January 7, 2026
Republican Candidates React to Tim Walz Ending Campaign in MinnesotaLisa Demuth, the Minnesota House speaker who is running for governor, told Newsweek Walz's decision "doesn't come as a surprise."
Biztoc.com · January 5, 2026
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Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. | 2026-06-10 | 800 | D+8.0 |
| Minnesota Star Tribune | 2026-06-10 | 800 | D+8.0 |
| Emerson College | 2026-02-08 | 1000 | D+13.4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2026-01-30 | 575 | D+15.0 |