Actual result
D+3.0
Final polls said
D+3.7
11 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+4.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gannett New Jersey | D+5.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+1.0 | 4.0 | ✗ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | D+8.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Quinnipiac University | R+2.0 | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 6 | Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | D+10.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | Tarrance Group | R+4.0 | 7.0 | ✗ |
| 8 | The New York Times | D+12.0 | 9.0 | ✓ |
Polls (18)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2000-11-05 | 637 | R+1.0 | 4 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2000-11-03 | 7193 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2000-11-03 | 770 | R+2.0 | 5 |
| Gannett New Jersey | 2000-11-03 | 843 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| Tarrance Group | 2000-10-31 | 500 | R+4.0 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2000-10-30 | 594 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2000-10-27 | 679 | D+8.0 | 5 |
| Gannett New Jersey | 2000-10-27 | 575 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | 2000-10-25 | 432 | D+10.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2000-10-24 | 500 | D+8.0 | 5 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2000-10-20 | 909 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| The New York Times | 2000-10-14 | 800 | D+12.0 | 9 |
| Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | 2000-10-14 | 679 | D+11.0 | 8 |
| Gannett New Jersey | 2000-10-13 | 510 | D+13.0 | 10 |
| SurveyUSA | 2000-10-11 | 500 | D+8.0 | 5 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2000-09-28 | 820 | D+14.0 | 11 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2000-09-13 | 1344 | D+22.0 | 19 |
| Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | 2000-09-10 | 679 | D+10.0 | 7 |