Actual result
R+0.2
Final polls said
R+2.8
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Star Opinion Research | R+1.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Capital Survey Research Center | D+2.0 | 2.2 | ✗ |
| 3 | University of South Alabama Polling Group | R+4.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | University of Alabama at Birmingham | R+8.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Alabama at Birmingham | 2002-10-30 | 600 | R+8.0 | 8 |
| University of South Alabama Polling Group | 2002-10-23 | 926 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| Capital Survey Research Center | 2002-10-20 | 593 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| North Star Opinion Research | 2002-10-16 | 900 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| University of Alabama at Birmingham | 2002-09-11 | 600 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| University of Alabama at Birmingham | 2002-09-11 | 666 | R+2.0 | 2 |