Actual result
R+12.2
Final polls said
R+16.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of Connecticut | R+15.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Quinnipiac University | R+17.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University | 2002-10-24 | 637 | R+17.0 | 5 |
| University of Connecticut | 2002-10-17 | 608 | R+15.0 | 3 |
| University of Connecticut | 2002-10-06 | 608 | R+18.0 | 6 |
| University of Connecticut | 2002-09-30 | 608 | R+14.0 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2002-09-27 | 637 | R+22.0 | 10 |
| University of Connecticut | 2002-09-23 | 608 | R+16.0 | 4 |
| University of Connecticut | 2002-09-15 | 608 | R+13.0 | 1 |