Actual result
R+4.5
Final polls said
R+1.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ward Research | R+1.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Market Trends Pacific | EVEN | 4.5 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ward Research | 2002-10-28 | 750 | R+1.0 | 4 |
| Ward Research | 2002-10-21 | 750 | R+4.0 | 1 |
| Market Trends Pacific | 2002-10-21 | 600 | EVEN | 5 |
| Ward Research | 2002-09-25 | 750 | R+8.0 | 3 |